The No. 13 Ole Miss Rebels have been a mixed bag on the road this season. They own a big win against one of the best teams in the nation, but were also torn to shreds by a freshman quarterback. The Rebels now take a break from conference play this weekend to visit one of the more noteworthy Group of Five teams in an undefeated Memphis team, which has a rising star leading its prolific offense.
Read on as we preview this intriguing Week 7 matchup. Meanwhile, check out our previews of the coming weekend’s top games, like UCLA vs. Stanford and West Virginia vs. Baylor.
[sc:NCAAFArticles ]Ole Miss Rebels vs. Memphis Tigers Preview
Where: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis
When: Saturday, October 17, 12:00 PM ET
Line: Ole Miss Rebels (-10.5) at Memphis Tigers (+10.5); total: 70.0 – view all NCAA Football lines
TV Broadcast: ABC/ESPN 2
Betting on the Ole Miss Rebels (5-1, 2-1 SEC)
Obviously, No. 13 Ole Miss is a good team. But is it the contender that beat then-No. 2 Alabama in Tuscaloosa, 43-37, or is it the pretender that was shocked 38-10 by a freshman quarterback in Gainesville?
[sc:NCAA240banner ]The answer probably lies somewhere in between, and that team should still be good enough to beat Memphis comfortably on the road. For one, Memphis’s defense is nowhere near the elite Florida unit which Chad Kelly and the Ole Miss offense struggled to move the ball against.
The Rebels are one spot behind Memphis in terms of points per game (46.8, fifth in the nation), and a big reason why is because they’ve been able to beat up on weaker competition. They’re averaging 67 points per game in three games against non-Power 5 opponents.
Kelly and his army of very dangerous receivers should be able to continue putting up some big numbers against a Memphis pass defense that is dead last in the American, giving up 307 passing yards per game.
While Ole Miss didn’t show it against Florida, its defense is still one of the better ones in the country and should be able to hold its own against Memphis. The Rebels held the Tigers to just three points in a 24-3 win last year, as they forced Paxton to easily the worst game of his sophomore season (13-of-31, 81 yards and an interception).
Ole Miss has not lost to a non-Power 5 school since Hugh Freeze took over as head coach in 2012.
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Betting on the Memphis Tigers (5-0, 2-0 AAC)
Memphis got 59 points in the Week 7 AP Poll, but there’s definitely an argument to be made that they’re one of the top 25 teams in the nation at the moment. The 5-0 Tigers are enjoying their best start in 54 years, and are on a 12-game winning streak dating back to last season.
The Tigers are just 6-5-1 ATS in those 12 games, but they were favorites for every one of those games. They are currently big +10.5 home underdogs against No. 13 Ole Miss.
However, don’t put it past Memphis to go toe-to-toe with the Rebels. The Tigers have one of the best up-and-coming coaching minds in Justin Fuente, who has had an extra week to prepare for the Ole Miss defense; one of the best offenses in the nation (47.8 points per game, fourth in the FBS); and arguably the best non-Power 5 conference quarterback in Paxton Lynch.
Lynch, the junior quarterback who’s emerging as a potential top NFL prospect, is averaging a modest 307 yards per game with just 10 touchdown passes, but he’s completing 70 percent of his passes and has thrown exactly zero interceptions. His 181.47 passer rating is third-best in the nation.
The Ole Miss defense is a major step up in competition compared to what Lynch has faced so far – South Florida is arguably the best defense he’s faced – but the Rebels have shown they can be burned in the passing game. Florida freshman Will Grier burned them for 271 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-10 Ole Miss defeat.
Writer’s Prediction
Ole Miss (-10.5) has enough firepower to pull away for the 35-24 win.
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