This Super Bowl is shaping up to be one of the most evenly matched in a long time. Both in terms of their regular season records (identical at 13-3) and postseason performance, the Broncos and Seahawks are truly the two best teams this season.
To help determine who will ultimately emerge as champions, here are some trends from recent Super Bowls that could prove useful
Historical Super Bowl Betting Trends
1. #1 AFC seed vs #1 NFC seed
AFC vs NFC
Broncos-Seahawks will be the 10th match-up of #1 seeds in Super Bowl history. Of the nine previous match-ups, the NFC #1 seed – the Seahawks are the NFC champs – has prevailed in seven of them, with an average margin of victory of 20 points.[sc:NFL240banner ]
Furthermore, the favorites have gone 7-2 against the spread, with only the Raiders in SB XVIII and the Saints in 2009 pulling off the win as the underdogs.
#1 Offense vs #1 Defense
The Denver Broncos will be the 19th regular-season scoring champ to reach the Super Bowl. The previous 18 teams have gone 10-8. Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks will be the 16th defense that allowed the fewest points in the NFL has made the Super Bowl since the merger. The past 15 teams are 12-3 in those Super Bowls.
2. Super Bowl Totals
In a battle between the NFL’s #1 offense and the #1 defense, will the Broncos be able to run up the score, or will the Seahawks make it a low-scoring affair?
In the history of the Super Bowl, the totals are evenly split at 23 apiece. There also hasn’t been any discernible trend leaning toward the over or under in recent years.
However, both teams are trending on the under recently. The total has gone under in all four of the Broncos’ and Seahawks’ playoff games. Seattle’s under streak actually stretches to its last 7 games, while Denver is at 5 games. Furthermore, the average total in the Broncos’ last two games was only 41.5.
3. The Favorite (Almost Always) Covers
Thinking about taking the Broncos against the spread? It’s certainly an enticing bet, since a field goal wins them the game. Also, when the favorites do win, they almost always cover. Of the 33 favorites who have won the Super Bowl, only six have failed to cover the spread.
It is worth noting however, that half of those occurrences have come within the last decade alone (2004, 2005 and 2009).
4. Regular Season MVPs in the Super Bowl
Peyton Manning is almost surely going to collect his 5th career regular season MVP Trophy, but can he also cap off an incredible season by claiming the Lombardi Trophy?
From 1990-2000, six MVP winners also appeared in the Super Bowl, and all six came away victorious. However, that trend has reversed since Super Bowl XXXVI. Three MVPs have reached the Super Bowl – including 2005 MVP Shaun Alexander of the Seahawks and 2009 MVP Peyton Manning with the Colts – and all three have lost.
5. Mind the Quarterbacks
Peyton Manning will be the 4th quarterback to reach the Super Bowl after leading the NFL in both passing yards and TD passes. The previous three all lost.
Meanwhile, Russell Wilson will be the sixth quarterback to start in a Super Bowl in either his first or second season in the league. The previous five went 3-2, with wins by Kurt Warner, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger. The most recent quarterback to do so, was Colin Kaepernick, who lost.
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