Amidst the chaos of the 2020 professional sports season you can count one on thing – NFL will go on no matter what happens with the NBA, NHL, MLB seasons. But before we ponder whether or not the up and coming preseason will run with fans in the stands and hand sanitizer dripping from the helmets of players, we have the 2020 NFL Draft to look forward to. With money burning in the pockets of bettors in the lean betting season, cash is already pouring in over NFL Draft props and betting odds. One of the biggest questions, and betting opportunities, is in regards to Tua Tagovailoa. The Samoan-Hawaiian Alabama Crimson Tide star QB was once a shoe-in for the #1 spot in the Draft, but after being sidelined by a dislocated hip prior to the College Football Playoffs his Draft status is up in the air. Can he still go number one? Or will he fall further down the selections much further than anticipated? Let’s see what the odds on his draft position look like.
Prediction, Projection, and Betting Preview for Tua Tagovailoa in the 2020 NFL Draft
Where: Paradise, Nevada (unless moved)
When: Thursday April 23 – Saturday April 25 2020
TV Broadcast: ABC, ESPN and NFL Network
Tua Tagovailoa Draft Position OVER/UNDER Set at 3.5
Over 3.5 (+150)
Under 3.5 (-180)
The OVER/UNDER on Tagovailoa’s draft position is set at 3.5, favored to go early at -180. All reports point with certainty that his rehab has been effective and the quarterback is headed for a full recovery. That said, at +150 there are reasonable odds for him to go later with a Draft position hampered by a dislocated hip and subsequent surgery. Now let’s take a look at the first four teams in the 2020 NFL Draft and assess whether or not Tua brings the value they need going into the 2020 season.
1st Pick – Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals are entering the 2020 NFL Draft with the following rankings:
Offensive efficiency: 30th
Defensive efficiency: 25th
Special-teams efficiency: 16th
Many people are pointing to the Bengals interest in LSU’s Joe Burrow but Cincinnati shot-callers met with Tagovailoa towards the end of February and it went well. And what’s not to like? For one, Tua brings playoff experience, something the Bengals certainly need. He showed resilience as a backup to sophomore quarterback Jalen Hurts as a freshman en route to a National Championship in 2017, was a key to Alabama returning to the Championship game in 2018, and likely would have done so in 2019 if he wasn’t taken down at the hip against LSU.
The issue with Cincinnati though, is that they need more than a QB. They are in desperate need of an offensive tackle and linebacker to boot. Under a rebuild, a team cannot afford to gamble on their most important position, and no matter how well Tagovailoa’s recovery goes, he’s still a gamble, even if a small one. The Bengals are more likely to go with Burrows.
2nd Pick – Washington Redskins
The Washington Redskins are entering the 2020 NFL Draft with the following rankings:
Offensive efficiency: 32nd
Defensive efficiency: 27th
Special-teams efficiency: 4th
If TMZ reported on sports they would be among the first to say that the Redskins have been “romantically” linked to Tagovailoa leading up to this year’s Draft. Even ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler went public to state that Washington was “ready to exhaust resources” to scout the quarterback, despite the fact that they selected Dwayne Haskins as their supposed franchise QB just a year ago.
Another exciting prospect, is that after dropping in market value over the last two years, *Marcus Mariota could be joining the Redskins as a backup QB. They would need to find a taker for Haskins first, but there is a wide demand for supporting quarterback roles at the moment. Honolulu hometown heroes Mariota and Tagovailoa developed quite the rapport in 2019 so don’t be surprised to see a Polynesian storm coming to the 1 and 2 QB position in Landover Maryland in 2020.
*MARCH 16 2020 UPDATE: Mariota is headed to the Las Vegas Raiders.
3rd Pick – Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions are entering the 2020 NFL Draft with the following rankings:
Offensive efficiency: 19th
Defensive efficiency: 29th
Special-teams efficiency: 1st
No one wants to see this happen, including the Lions. After the season ended rumors that the Lions might attempt move on from Mathew Stafford swirled around Motown. But upper management does not forget that the seasoned quarterback is their all-time leader in nearly every relevant passing category. Lions’ GM Bob Quinn recently made it clear that all reports about shopping the QB were “100 percent false”. Instead Detroit will be looking to improve their offense running game along defense to keep Stafford from getting sacked on the field, not from the roster.
4th Pick – New York Giants
The New York Giants are entering the 2020 NFL Draft with the following rankings:
Offensive efficiency: 25th
Defensive efficiency: 28th
Special-teams efficiency: 17th
The Giants already have a franchise quarterback in Daniel Jones. The only way they take Tagovailoa is to trade him, but that’s not their current GM’s style. Dave Gettleman has presided over seven NFL Drafts in total (five as GM with the Panthers and two with the Giants) and has never picked in the first round to make a trade. This won’t happen.
Three of the four first Draft picks will not take Tagovailoa. But that leaves the Washington Redskins, who will. Tua Tagovailoa will go #2 in the 2020 NFL Draft, so feel free to bet the UNDER (-180).
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