At least there’s MMA action left to bet on after the NBA and NCAA has postponed games thanks to the media-fueled health panic. The UFC has stepped up to continue on with UFC Fight Night 170 in Brasília, Brazil, albeit without the public in attendance. While that sucks for ticket holders it’s a big opportunity for bettors who can now take that NBA/NCAA investment and put it into a highly anticipated bout that comes in the form of Kevin Lee vs Charles Oliveira. We’ve already previewed the other main cards for UFC Fight Night 170 (aka UFC on ESPN+ 28) right here, but today we’re focusing on the two Lightweights who will draw some heavy duty betting action this Saturday evening in Brazil.
The sportsbook betting line opened in favor (-145) of American professional mixed martial artist Kevin Lee, and it has stayed put as we head into the weekend. The 27 year-old recently enjoyed a first-round knockout win over the a 155 lb Gregor Gillespie back in November at UFC 244, a win which broke Lee’s two-event losing skid. His best run of victories occurred when he was a young gun, winning five in a row from April 2016 and June 2017, but three years takes its toll on MMA fighters. Lee is coming into Fight Night 170 with an 18-5-0 record which includes three knockout wins and eight wins by submission.
Lee boasts a Takedown Accuracy (TD Acc) of 3.23 takedowns, along with 3.9 Significant Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM) and a 42% Strike Accuracy (Str. Acc).
Oliveira gives up 15-points to Kevin Lee, coming in at 155 lbs which is the exact same weight as Gregor Gillespie who Lee pummeled most recently at UFC 244. However, Oliveira is significantly more accurate with his strikes with 50.68% Str. Acc versus Lees 42.53%. But most promising for Oliveira is the momentum he brings into Fight Night 170. The Brazilian nicknamed “Charles do Bronx” is not only fighting in front of a home crowd (err…sort of) he is entering Saturday’s octagon on a six-fight winning streak, with his most recent win coming against Jared Gordon (also 155 lbs) in November at Fight Night 164. The man has not lost a bout since December of 2017, but take note that overconfidence may be his undoing, that and the fact that he is outmuscled by this Saturday’s opponent. Oliveira has 18 submission wins against three losses.
Writer’s Prediction:
Kevin Lee overpowers Oliveira in a battle of attrition, winning by decision.
