VCU and Dayton were two of the most surprising Cinderella teams in recent tournament history. VCU made it all the way to the Final Four as a No. 11 seed back in 2011, while Dayton also made it to the Elite Eight as a No. 11 just last year.
The two teams are eager to make another run in this year’s tourney, but they have to get there first. That all-important automatic bid to the Big Dance will be up for grabs when they go head-to-head in the Atlantic 10 tournament final. Read on for our complete preview below.
Don’t miss our previews of the remaining championship games, namely Arkansas vs. Kentucky in the SEC and Michigan State vs. Wisconsin in the Big Ten, as you await the final field of 68 on Selection Sunday.
[sc:MarchMadness ]VCU Rams vs. Dayton Flyers Betting Preview
Where: Barclays Center, Brooklyn
When: Sunday, March 15, 1:00 PM ET
Line: VCU (-1) vs. Dayton (+1) – view all NCAA Basketball lines
Betting on the VCU Rams
VCU was dealt a demoralizing 27-point road defeat by Davidson in the penultimate regular season game. But the Rams returned the favor on the No. 1 seed Wildcats with a dominant 93-73 win of their own in the tournament semifinal. All nine Rams players scored, with the team shooting 49 percent from the field and 12-for-24 from three.
[sc:NCAAB240banner ]The Rams will look to return the favor for another loss they took, a 59-55 defeat to Dayton back on Feb. 28. VCU’s offense was off in that game, as they shot 34 percent from the floor and 6-of-25 (24 percent) from three. Leading scorer Treveon Graham was the main offender, with only 12 points on 4-of-14 shooting (1-of-8 from three). Graham has played better recently, though, with 18 points per game in his last four.
VCU’s shooting remains quite inefficient – the team shot 30 and 41 percent in its first two tournament games – but it has made up for the poor shooting by taking significantly more free throw attempts. The Rams have gone to the line 32 more times than their opponents over the last three games, and have made 33 more free throws.
VCU’s aggressiveness will be crucial not only in getting easy points from the line, but also in getting the Flyers into foul trouble. Dayton is a very shallow team, so VCU will have a big advantage if it can take anyone in the Flyers’ seven-man rotation out of the game due to fouls.
VCU is 2-6 against the spread in its last eight games.
Betting on the Dayton Flyers
No. 2 seed Dayton came through in a couple of close contests to reach the conference tournament final. It squeaked past St. Bonaventure, 75-71, in the quarterfinal, before another close four-point win over No. 3 Rhode Island in the semis.
Jordan Sibert, a veteran of last year’s Elite Eight team, has been the team’s most consistent player with 15.5 points over the two games. Sibert has turned it up in the tail-end of the season, with 19 points per game in his last six. Sibert led the team with 19 big points in Dayton’s big road win over the then-No. 22-ranked Rams.
The Flyers will need another fabulous effort from their senior guard in order to bring down the Rams. Kendall Pollard must also rediscover his stroke after a nine-point performance against Rhode Island. Pollard had averaged 18 points in the five games prior, though, including 16 against VCU.
But the key to Dayton’s success this season has been its superior defense, which allows just 61 points per game (43rd in the nation). The Flyers’ 32nd-ranked three-point defense, which limits opponents to 31 percent from beyond the arc, could play a big part against VCU’s three-pointer-happy offense that launches up 23.5 three-point attempts per game.
More importantly, Dayton has achieved that level of defense without fouling too often. The Flyers commit just 16 personal fouls per game, which will be crucial in keeping the Rams out of the free throw line.
Writer’s Prediction
VCU (-1) grabs the slender victory, and the ticket to the tournament. Create a betting account now and punch your ticket to another wild ride of college hoops action this upcoming March Madness.
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