Sparty’s back. After another impressive tournament run, Michigan State will be defending its Big Ten crown against regular season champ Wisconsin in the final on Selection Sunday. Frank Kaminsky and the Badgers were close to unstoppable during conference play, but the senior-led Spartans are on a four-game winning streak and will offer a worthy challenge. Read on below for our Big Ten finals preview.
Championship Week is coming to a close with a bang. Don’t forget to check out our previews of the other tournament finals from the SEC (Arkansas vs. Kentucky) and AAC (Connecticut vs. SMU). And of course, get your printable brackets here in preparation for Selection Sunday.
[sc:MarchMadness ]Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers Betting Preview
Where: United Center, Chicago
When: Sunday, March 15, 3:30 PM ET
Line: Michigan State (+6.5) vs. Wisconsin (-6.5) – view all NCAA Basketball lines
Betting on the Michigan State Spartans
It’s a pretty nice time for Travis Trice to be playing his best basketball of the season. Trice had 18 points in the Spartans’ 76-67 quarterfinal win over Ohio State, and led the team with 20 in their 62-58 upset of No. 8-ranked Maryland in the semis. The senior guard has been averaging over 20 points per game since Valentine’s Day, and has put in an average of 21.5 points in the Spartans’ recent four-game winning streak.
[sc:NCAAB240banner ]Trice played well in Michigan State’s regular season meeting with Wisconsin, a 68-61 Spartans loss on March 1. Trice had 16 points while Bryn Forbes came from out of nowhere to drop 21 points on 8-of-9 shooting from the field and a perfect 5-of-5 from three.
The Spartans’ three-point shooting could once again be vital in this matchup. They shot close to 39 percent on the season, but went a sizzling 9-of-17 (53 percent) from beyond the arc in the first game against Wisconsin. The Badgers. on the other hand, have allowed opponents to shoot 13-of-29 (45 percent) from three through their first two tournament games.
Meanwhile, senior Branden Dawson could be ready to redeem himself after a poor showing against Wisconsin. Dawson, who was relegated to the bench following a poor showing in the previous game, scored only four points against the Badgers. The Spartan frontcourt as a whole had just 12 in the game.
Dawson, though, has returned just fine after missing the regular season finale against Indiana due to a head injury. He’s averaging 15.5 points and eight rebounds and shooting 54 percent from the field in the tournament.
The over has gone 5-1 in the Spartans’ last six games.
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Betting on the Wisconsin Badgers
Ruthlessly efficient. That’s what Wisconsin was in the regular season en route to a dominating 16-2 conference record, and that’s what it’s been in the first two games of the tournament. In both games thus far, the Badgers have scored an identical 71 points in wins over Michigan (71-60) and Purdue (71-51) and have shot very good percentages across the board.
The one flaw in the Badgers’ win over Michigan was their defense, which allowed the Wolverines to shoot 52 percent from the floor. They upped the intensity on that end of the floor against Purdue, as they held the Boilermakers to just 37 percent.
Seven-foot senior Frank Kaminsky completely shut down opposing Purdue big man AJ Hammons and held him scoreless in the second half. He did a similarly great job protecting the paint against Michigan State’s bigs in their first meeting. “Frank the Tank” wasn’t too shabby on the offensive end, either, as he torched the Spartans for a season-high 31 points on 11-of-17 shooting.
The Badgers have had a very well-balanced offense thus far in the tournament, but expect them to let Kaminsky work a lot more inside against the undersized Spartans frontline. And if Michigan State coach Tom Izzo decides to double-team Kaminsky, Sam Dekker and Bronson Koenig will be ready to step up. Dekker is averaging 15.5 points per game over his last four games, while Koenig has gone off for 15 points per game in his last three.
Wisconsin is just 3-5 against the spread in its last eight games.
Writer’s Prediction
Wisconsin has enough firepower to get the win, but the Spartans (+6.5) fight to the death and cover the spread.
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