Wales vs. Portugal Preview
Where: Parc Olympique Lyonnais – Lyon, France
When: Wednesday, July 6, 3:00 PM ET
Line: Wales +250 vs. Portugal +108, tie +191; total: 2.0 – view all Euro 2016 lines
TV Broadcast: ESPN
Writer’s Pick: Portugal
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Offensive Edge: Portugal (+108)
Despite producing a couple of dull offense performances against Croatia and Poland, Portugal’s attack still has the edge over Wales.
Everyone knows all about the goalscoring abilities of Cristiano Ronaldo, and even while he hasn’t had the best of tournaments, he is still a huge threat anytime he’s on the opposing team’s half. The likes of Nani, Ricardo Quaresma, and Renato Sanches have also shown they can be contributors on offense.
The Portuguese have been much more cautious on offense during the knockout round, but they do have the personnel to give Wales’ defense some problems if they decide to attack a bit more. The tendency of Ronaldo and Nani to drift wide could be able to destabilize the usually solid Wales back three.
On the flipside, Wales’ attack will miss a key weapon in Aaron Ramsey, who will be suspended after picking up a second yellow card against Belgium. Ramsey has been one of the team’s top performers in the tournament. His role as the main sidekick to star Gareth Bale is crucial to the team’s entire offense.
Wales did well to exploit the defensive weaknesses of Russia, whom they beat 3-0 in the group stage, and Belgium, whom they upset 3-1 in the quarterfinals. However, picking holes in a resolute Portugal defense will be difficult without the talents of Ramsey alongside Bale.
Defensive Edge: Portugal (+108)
Conceding an early goal against Poland aside, Portugal’s defense has played very well over the last two games, which is why it gets the slight edge. Santos’ cautious strategy has helped shore up the back after giving up three goals to Hungary, but credit must also go to the defenders – particularly Pepe – for producing some excellent performances.
Despite their continued inability to win a single game in 90 minutes –that’s now five draws in five games – it’s unlikely that the Portuguese stray too far from their “winning” defense-first mentality, especially with a place in the final on the line.
Meanwhile, Wales’ defense has been just as impressive as Portugal’s for most of the tournament. They’ve allowed only one goal – a Radja Nainggolan rocket – in their last three games. But their settled back three will be altered a bit by the suspension of Ben Davies. The absence of Ramsey could also hurt their ability to keep hold of the ball, and force them to defend more than they would like.
Writer’s Prediction: Portugal finally claims its first win in 90 minutes in the tournament by beating Wales, 2-1.
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