The regular season is over and done with, but there’s one more week – Championship Week – for the inaugural College Football Playoff hopefuls to make one last push to the selection committee.
The current incumbents of the four playoff places have the advantage of holding their destiny in their own hands to some extent, but if any one (or maybe more) team slips up, there are more than a few others ready and waiting to pounce.
So just what will it take for all those teams to either stay in or enter the playoff picture when it’s all said and done? Below, we take a look at the different possible playoff scenarios that could play out in the wild west that is college football’s season end.
[sc:NCAAFArticles ]The 2014 College Football Playoff Contenders
The Top Four
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama will have a ticket to the playoff – and as the top overall seed, no less – punched and ready if it simply takes care of business against Missouri in the SEC Championship Game. At +150, the Tide have the lowest odds to take home the national title.
[sc:NCAA240banner ]But even if Mizzou scores an improbable upset, Bama’s playoff hopes may not be completely done. They would still finish the season 10-2 and champions of what is generally considered the toughest division in the country (the SEC West), which may be enough for the committee to keep the Tide in the top four. For more on this game, check out our comprehensive Alabama-Missouri preview.
Oregon Ducks
Oregon has a similarly straightforward road to the playoff as it just needs to beat Arizona in the Pac-12 Championship Game to guarantee its place as a top-two seed. The Ducks could also enjoy the same big-conference privileges and hang on to a spot if they unexpectedly slip up a second time against the Wildcats, but they would likely need one of the other three to lose as well. Read our full preview of that game here.
TCU Horned Frogs
It bodes well for TCU that they’re currently ranked over unbeaten Florida State and three spots ahead of conference rivals Baylor. Such a ranking implies that if the Horned Frogs take care of Iowa State (which is 0-8 in conference play) in their final regular season game, then they should be safely in the top four.
Florida State Seminoles
Despite the wildly unconvincing manner of its victories, another undefeated record should propel defending champion Florida State into the playoff if it beats Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game. But seeing as one-loss TCU is above them in the rankings, a loss would likely spell the end of the Noles’ playoff hopes.
The Rest
Ohio State Buckeyes and Baylor Bears
Should one of the top four falter, one-loss Ohio State looks like the team to immediately gain. However, that will still be very much dependent on the Buckeyes winning the Big Ten title (they’re currently underdogs against Wisconsin), which they’ll have to do without stud quarterback J.T. Barrett.
As for Baylor, the current CFP rankings suggest that in the event of a tie atop the Big 12, the committee will be leaning more heavily toward TCU’s much tougher strength of schedule as opposed to the Bears’ head-to-head win over the Horned Frogs, thus leaving Baylor out of the Playoff.
A slip up from even one of the top four would open the door for Baylor, but they must also score a convincing win over Kansas State. Much will depend on quarterback Bryce Petty’s availability after he suffered a concussion last week. Despite those uncertainties, though, Baylor is still a strong +750 to win the national title.
Missouri, Arizona, Wisconsin and Georgia Tech
All four teams are in roughly the same boat with respect to their playoff hopes. Mizzou, Arizona and Georgia Tech will all face a team in the top-four of the CFP rankings in the championship game of their respective conferences, while Wisconsin faces Ohio State, ranked No. 5 in the CFP.
Should the Tigers, Wildcats, Badgers and/or Yellow Jackets win their respective title game, they would have a conference crown and a huge upset win over a title contender to strengthen their case for inclusion (potentially at the expense of said contender). However, even those may not be enough to see them in given that all four would still have two losses and unconvincing resumes.
Despite being all the way down in No. 16 in the current CFP ranking, Mizzou has the best odds among the four at +2,500 to win the national championship. A possible SEC title and a victory over the No. 1 team in the country would give the Tigers a decent case to enter the playoff, but they still have some bad losses to Indiana and Georgia hanging over them.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin (No. 13) and Georgia Tech (No. 11) have played weak schedules in weak divisions and their conference championship opponents – Ohio State and Florida State – are arguably the two weakest contenders, which make victories over them seem less impressive.
The case for Arizona (No. 7) could be the strongest if they can beat Oregon a second time and become Pac-12 champs. But regardless of who can score the big upset, all four teams would still need one or two more teams in the top six to falter in order for them to be part of a legitimate conversation for a playoff spot.
Writer’s Prediction
Alabama, Oregon and TCU all handle their business, taking Mizzou and Arizona out of the equation. But Florida State and Ohio State falter, as Baylor clinches the final playoff spot with a big win against K-State. Create a betting account now and cash in on these huge end-of-season games with playoff implications.
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