It took until the final day of the season to decide, but the 16 playoff teams finally know who they’ll be facing in the opening round. And there are some juicy match ups. Let’s take a look at all eight first-round match-ups and determine which teams stand the best chance of moving on to the next round.
[sc:NBAArticles ]
NBA Playoffs Round 1 Preview and Predictions
Eastern Conference
The Eastern Conference is a wild place these days, with its top two seeds, the Pacers and Heat, struggling down the stretch and ultimately doing their best to give the other the top spot going into the postseason. For that reason, none of the lower seeds are done just yet: these are winnable games for any team that can play its best ball when it matters most.
(1) Indiana Pacers vs. (8) Atlanta Hawks
Regular Season Series: Tied, 2-2
[sc:NBA240banner ]The book on the Pacers is simple: incredible defense (1st in Defensive Rating) but atrocious offense (100.2 points per 100 possessions since All-Star break, next to last in the NBA). Paul George (22.6 PPG, 42% from three in April) has improved from his disastrous March, and will need to take that into the playoffs.
Conversely, the Hawks finished the season strong (6-2 SU/7-1 ATS in their final eight games), including a 107-88 destruction of the Pacers in Atlanta. Jeff Teague (almost 20 PPG in April) and Paul Millsap (20-12 in his last eight games) will be a handful even for the strong Indiana defense.
Writer’s Prediction: The Pacers’ offense will cost it a couple of games, but the defense should be good enough to prevail. Pacers in 6.
(2) Miami Heat vs. (7) Charlotte Bobcats
Regular Season Series: Heat, 4-0
Even after Charlotte improved its defense this season, LeBron James still tore the Bobcats to shreds. James averaged almost 38 PPG vs. Charlotte, including a career-high 61 points in March 3. With James and Chris Bosh rested and Dwyane Wade ready to go, this series is Miami’s to lose.
If the Bobcats have a chance, they’ll need a lot from Al Jefferson, who has been beastly since March 1 (24.6 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 54.7% FG%). On the other end of the floor, Charlotte is 5th-best in the league at defending shots less than five feet away, which just so happens to be the Heat’s specialty.
Writer’s Prediction: The Big 3 are back together and that doesn’t bode well for the Bobcats. Heat in 5.
(3) Toronto Raptors vs. (6) Brooklyn Nets
Regular Season Series: Tied, 2-2
The backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan (42.2 PPG) trails only the Warriors’ Steph Curry and Klay Thompson as the most prolific guard combo in the NBA. And with Jonas Valanciunas (61% shooting in his last 10) breaking out, the young legs of the Raptors might just overpower the Nets.
The Raptors might have the youth and athleticism, but the Nets have the depth and experience. Joe Johnson, Deron Williams, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett have all been through the wars, and can also call on the likes of Marcus Thornton, Andray Blatche and Mason Plumlee to explode off the bench.
Writer’s Prediction: In a pretty evenly-matched series, home court could be the deciding factor. Raptors in 7.
(4) Chicago Bulls vs. (5) Washington Wizards
Regular Season Series: Wizards, 2-1
Everyone knows about the Bull’s great defense (2nd in the NBA in defensive rating), but the offense remains a wild card. However, the offense has risen from 27th in Offensive Rating pre-All-Star Game to a less horrid 23rd post-ASG, thanks to Joakim Noah (7 assists/game since the All-Star break) becoming its focal point.
But against the Wizards, Noah will have to battle with both Marcin Gortat and the returning Nene on both ends of the court, in addition to being left to handle the likes of John Wall (19 PPG, 9 APG) on the pick and roll, which could be too physically taxing even for him.
Writer’s Prediction: The Bulls defense is just too good and the Thibodeau-Wittman coaching duel is overwhelmingly in Chicago’s favor. Bulls in 6.
The Phoenix Suns had an excellent season and didn’t make the playoffs with 48 wins. If they played in the East, they would have tied the Raptors for third-best in the conference. Which is to say: these Western Conference teams are all capable of winning games in bunches. The trouble is, incumbent favorites like the Spurs and Thunder seem steadfastly committed to dominating the league late into the postseason.
(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (8) Dallas Mavericks
Regular Season Series: Spurs, 4-0
The San Antonio Spurs (62-20) were the best team in the regular season, and they rested one or more of their stars seemingly every game in 2014. They’re fully healthy. They’re sixth in Offensive Rating and 3rd in Defensive Rating. They haven’t lost to the Mavericks since 2012. Does Dallas even stand a chance?
Sure they do. The Mavs post-ASG had a better Offensive Rating than the Spurs or any other team in the NBA. They’re the 2nd-best three-point shooting team in the NBA at 38.6%. And they have Dirk Nowitzki (24 PPG, 57% FG% and 51% 3PFG% in April), who’s (always) ready for the playoffs.
Writer’s Prediction: Despite Dirk’s heroics, the Spurs look too good to bet against right now. Spurs in 5.
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (7) Memphis Grizzlies
Regular Season Series: Thunder, 3-1
MVP-to-be Kevin Durant (32 PPG) and Russell Westbrook (21 PPG) are obviously important, but the key to this series will be the Thunder’s frontline. Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka can match up well with the bulk of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, essentially nullifying the Grizzlies’ biggest advantage.
Memphis, on paper, can throw a host of bodies (Tayshaun Prince, Tony Allen, James Johnson) at Durant, but that still might not work, which is why their All-Star duo of Gasol (18 PPG and 9 RPG in April) and Randolph (17 PPG and 10 RPG this season) need to convincingly win their battles if the Grizzlies stand any chance of pulling out the series.
Writer’s Prediction: Durant will prove the frontline match up irrelevant and carry OKC to victory. Thunder in 5.
(3) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (6) Golden State Warriors
Regular Season Series: Tied, 2-2
The Clippers, and Blake Griffin (24 PPG this season) in particular, must be licking his chops at the thought of going against the Warriors without Andrew Bogut and a hobbled David Lee. LA had the 2nd-best percentage within 5 feet in the regular season at 66%.
But count Stephen Curry (26 PPG, 10 APG, 47% 3PFG% in April) out at your own peril. He’s still capable of winning a game or two by himself.
Writer’s Prediction: Without Bogut, the Warriors don’t have enough defense to overcome the Clippers’ weapons. LA in 5.
(4) Houston Rockets vs. (5) Portland Trailblazers
Regular Season Series: Rockets, 3-1
James Harden (25 PPG) leads the Rockets offense (5th in NBA in Offensive Rating), while Dwight Howard props up their otherwise-subpar defense. Patrick Beverley is also back from his knee injury to pester Damian Lillard.
The Blazers aren’t bad on offense themselves (2nd in Offensive Rating) and have more good scorers than the Rockets have good defenders. In other words, this series will be a shootout.
Writer’s Prediction: In what should be the best series of the first round, Houston has arguably the two best players, which should give them the advantage. Rockets in 6.
Writer’s NBA Finals Prediction
It’ll be the match-up we’ve been waiting for: LeBron vs. Durant 2. The Thunder are the only team in the West equipped to beat the Spurs, while the Heat have few viable challengers in the East with the Pacers seemingly in decline. Durant is likely to win his first MVP trophy this season, but just like Jordan and Malone in ’97, the best player in the world will rise to the challenge. Heat in 6.
With the action tipping off in all four of these series on Saturday, there’s never been a better time to bet on the NBA playoffs.
