The No. 1 seed has often been the kiss of death in the Pac-12. Not since 2008 has the top seed gone on to win the conference tournament. This year’s regular season champs, the Arizona Wildcats, will try to buck that unfortunate piece of history as they go in search of their first conference tournament title since 2002.
And if history does indeed hold true to form as the No. 1 seed fails, which team can take advantage and capture the crown – and that automatic bid to the Big Dance?
Read on as we break down the favorites, sleepers and long shot teams in the field at the Pac-12 Championship.
Can’t get enough of Championship Week? Then check out more of our previews of the SEC and ACC conference tournaments.
[sc:MarchMadness ]Pac-12 Tournament Preview and Prediction
Favorite – Arizona Wildcats
[sc:NCAAB240banner ]With Utah’s unexpected late-season struggles, Arizona is now alone at the top as the Pac-12’s team to beat. The Wildcats, who went 16-2 in conference play, have tremendous balance across the roster, with six players averaging nine or more points this season. Freshman and surefire NBA lottery pick Stanley Johnson leads the team with 13.9 points per game, and has the ability to go off at any time.
They also possess arguably the most talented non-Kentucky frontcourt in college basketball, with Kaleb Tarczewski, Brandon Ashley and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. With this stacked lineup, the Wildcats are +1,200 to win this year’s national championship.
Arizona hasn’t had too much luck in tournaments, though. Aside from having just the one national championship in 1997 (and their last Final Four appearance coming in 2001), the Wildcats have also gone 13 years without even a conference tournament championship.
Sleeper – UCLA Bruins
The team that has foiled Arizona’s tourney hopes in the last two years? UCLA. The Bruins aren’t what they once were during those two years – they were the No. 1 seed in 2013 and the No. 2 seed last year – but they still possess a very dangerous team with lots of firepower.
Senior Norman Powell is sixth in the conference in scoring with 16.3 points per game, while sophomore Bryce Alford (head coach Steve Alford’s son) isn’t too far behind with 15.5 points. There’s also big man and potential lottery pick Kevon Looney (12.3 points and 9.5 rebounds per game), who could use a strong tournament run to improve his draft stock.
UCLA’s road to winning the Pac-12 will likely lead to a meeting with Arizona in the semifinals, but with their talent and recent track record, don’t put it past the Bruins to pull a massive upset on the Wildcats.
Long Shot – Stanford Cardinal
Yes, Stanford’s ugly three-game losing streak to end its regular season – including a 91-69 demolition at the hands of Arizona – doesn’t look particularly good. But the Cardinal are still a pretty talented bunch, especially their one-two punch of Chasson Randle (19.1 points per game, second in the conference) and Anthony Brown (15.1 points per game) that can power a surprise tournament run.
It also helps Stanford might just have the best road to the final of all the non-bye teams. The Cardinal take on Washington – a team they swept in the regular season – in round one, face a reeling Utah team in the quarterfinals and a good but flawed Oregon team in the semis. If Randle and/or Brown get hot, and if they get one or two breaks (like Oregon losing in round two), Stanford could just be in with a shout.
Create a betting account now and be in with a shout to score big on an unlikely team’s surprise tournament run.
Can Anyone Stop Arizona?
Arizona’s not exactly the all-conquering juggernaut like, say, the other Wildcats over in the SEC. Despite its talent, Arizona can (and often does) get sucked into close, grind-it-out type of battles, especially away from the McKale Center. Catch the Wildcats on one of those days, and one or two breaks could be all it takes to knock the No. 1 seed out.
Slumping Utah took Arizona down to the wire in their Feb. 28 meeting in Salt Lake City, eventually losing a 63-57 decision. But even with their late season struggles, Utah is the prototypical team that can bring down Arizona. The Utes have a go-to scorer in Delon Wright, who scored 17 in that game. And they have very good defense (No. 7 in adjusted defensive efficiency) to turn any game into an ugly slugfest.
That combination, coupled with Arizona’s penchant for faltering in these big stages, could be just the recipe for the Utes – or another team from the field – to capitalize and take the conference crown ahead of the Wildcats.
Writer’s Prediction
Arizona falters again in the big stage, while Utah capitalizes to win the conference tourney.
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