Hallelujah! Week 1 of the 2016 NFL season is finally here. There’s a full 16-game slate this week, ready and waiting to be picked. As we will do here at TopBet every week for the next 17 weeks, we’ll analyze then give our against-the-spread predictions for every single game on the schedule. So without further ado, on to the Week 1 picks, beginning with the Super Bowl 50 rematch.
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2016 NFL Week 1 Complete Picks
Thursday, September 8
Carolina Panthers (-3) at Denver Broncos (+3) – 8:30 PM ET
Newton and the Panthers had all offseason to diagnose exactly what went wrong in the Super Bowl, and should be well-prepped to correct them in this game. Also, they’re facing Trevor f-ing Siemian.
Writer’s Prediction: Panthers (-3) win and cover at Mile High, 24-17.
Sunday, September 11
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) – 1:00 PM ET
Pop quiz: When was the last time the Jags beat a team which eventually ended the season with a winning record? The answer: way back in 2012 against the Colts, who were led by a rookie Andrew Luck. Last season, they were defeated by the three best teams they faced – Carolina, New England, and Houston (twice) – by an average of 20 points.
The Packers are one such team on that sort of level. Sure, Jordy Nelson still won’t be at 100 percent after sitting out the preseason, but trust Aaron Rodgers to eventually find a way to get the job done. The Packers went 7-3 ATS on the road last season (including playoffs).
Writer’s Prediction: The Packers (-4.5) roll to a 31-21 win.
Buffalo Bills (+3) at Baltimore Ravens (-3) – 1:00 PM ET
The Bills and Ravens were expected to be right up there defensively last season, but both were surprisingly at the bottom half of the league on that side of the ball. Neither unit projects to be drastically better this year. The Bills, in particular, will be without suspended star tackle Marcell Dareus and their two highly-touted rookies.
But on the bright side, the Bills offense will likely be the best unit on the field in this game. Led by LeSean McCoy, they ran the ball incredibly well last season. Tyrod Taylor also established himself as a legit starting NFL quarterback. Between them and the Ravens, you’d have to feel more confident in the Bills’ ability to be the more effective offense in this matchup.
Writer’s Prediction: The Bills (+3) grab the upset with a 21-17 road win.
Chicago Bears (+4.5) at Houston Texans (-4.5) – 1:00 PM ET
Despite some promising performances in preseason, the jury’s still out on new Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler. However, Houston doesn’t really need its new QB to be a gunslinger right off the bat to defeat the Bears.
The Texans still have the superior defense, especially with J.J. Watt expected to play. They also figure to have a stellar running game led by new lead back Lamar Miller. The Bears D should be improved with the additions of Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman, but fixing a run defense that ranked dead last in the NFL – as the Bears were last season – to improve instantaneously.
Writer’s Prediction: The Texans (-4.5) torch the Bears with a 27-14 home win.
Cleveland Browns (+4) at Philadelphia Eagles (-4) – 1:00 PM ET
So after re-signing Sam Bradford and bringing in veteran Chase Daniel, the Eagles are planning to start a rookie quarterback – who played in the FCS- in Week 1? And he’ll be favored by more than three points? Admittedly, the Browns defense is still a bit of a mess, and the RGIII hype may be a bit overblown. But Carson Wentz has more than enough question marks to think Cleveland can keep it fairly close on the road.
Writer’s Prediction: The Eagles eke out a 20-17 win, but Cleveland (+4) manages to cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) at Atlanta Falcons (-3) – 1:00 PM ET
The Bucs swept the season series against the Falcons last season, the first time that’s happened since 2007. Meanwhile, the last time they won back-to-back games in the Georgia Dome was all the way back in 2002-03. Matt Ryan doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence these days, but with Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman, he should have enough weapons to end the losing skid against the Bucs.
Writer’s Prediction: The Falcons (-3) edge out the Bucs with a 27-24 win at home.
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans (+2.5) – 1:00 PM ET
The Vikings’ addition of Sam Bradford was nice, but there really shouldn’t be too much of a difference whether he or Shaun Hill starts against the Titans. Either way, the Vikes should be predominantly run-heavy, feeding Adrian Peterson at every opportunity. The Titans obviously know what’s coming, but can they stop it? They haven’t been ranked higher than 24th in run defense DVOA since 2011.
Meanwhile, you should have much more confidence in the Minnesota defense’s ability to keep the Titans’ attack quiet. The Vikings finished fifth in scoring defense last season.
Writer’s Prediction: The Vikings (-2.5) score an opening week win, 20-17.
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at New York Jets (+2.5) – 1:00 PM ET
The Jets were No. 1 against the run last season per DVOA, but Damon Harrison is gone and Sheldon Richardson is suspended. That should allow a pretty good Bengals running game to ease the pressure on Andy Dalton and move the ball a bit better on the ground. Cincy has been one of the most consistently good road teams in the NFL. The Bengals have gone 11-6 (12-3-2 ATS) away from home since 2014.
Writer’s Prediction: The Bengals (-2.5) beat the Jets, 24-21.
Oakland Raiders (+1) at New Orleans Saints (-1) – 1:00 PM ET
Did you know that the Saints are just 4-9 (4-8-1 ATS) in their last nine home games? They also had one of the most historically awful pass defenses last season, and they didn’t make moves that can drastically improve that unit this season. The Saints also have a pathetic pass rush, which will be going up against a Raiders O-line that could be the best in the league in pass protection.
Basically, it’s hard to imagine Derek Carr and Amari Cooper not having an absolute field day inside the Superdome.
Writer’s Prediction: The Raiders (+1) roll to a 31-28 road win.
San Diego Chargers (+7) at Kansas City Chiefs (-7) – 1:00 PM ET
Jamaal Charles likely won’t be 100 percent ready to go for Week 1, and pass rusher extraordinaire Justin Houston is definitely out as well. And yet the Chiefs are still a touchdown favorite against the Chargers.
Okay, so the Chargers’ D was pretty pathetic last season, but it did hold KC to just 10 points at Arrowhead in their last meeting. And Philip Rivers has more than enough weapons at his disposal to keep things much closer.
Writer’s Prediction: The Chargers (+7) lose but still manage to cover, 21-17.
Miami Dolphins (+10.5) at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5) – 4:05 PM ET
The Seahawks are pretty comfortably the biggest favorites in Week 1, and with good reason. They’ll be at home, and will be armed with a high-powered passing offense should be able to put up points. They averaged 32 points in the second half of last season. On the other side, the Miami secondary is not particularly good, and it hardly has the offense to cope.
Don’t be scared off by the big spread. The Seahawks have a decent track record of covering big spreads at home, going 4-1-1 ATS as 10-point favorites or higher over the past two seasons.
Writer’s Prediction: The Seahawks (-10.5) start off the season with a bang as they beat the Dolphins, 35-21.
Detroit Lions (+4) at Indianapolis Colts (-4) – 4:25 PM ET
Throw the Colts’ 2015 season away. They had an unhealthy Andrew Luck, and stumbled to an 8-8 campaign. But history has shown that when Luck is anywhere close to full capacity, the Colts just win (and cover) home games. Since 2012 – Luck’s rookie season – the Colts have gone 23-10-1 ATS at home, the best record in the league during that stretch. (They went 4-4 ATS with a banged up Luck last season.)
He should be right back to his best after some time off last year, and will be back to overcoming the weaknesses Indy still has.
Writer’s Prediction: The Colts (-4) cruise to a 27-17 home win.
New York Giants (PK) at Dallas Cowboys (PK) – 4:25 PM ET
The Giants faced a Tony Romo-less Cowboys team at home last season, and it resulted in a pretty comfortable 27-20 win. That was with Eli Manning having one of his worst outings of the season, and the Giants run defense getting gashed for 233 yards.
After the shopping spree the Giants had during the offseason, you’d think that their defense should see at least some improvement. Manning should also play much better thanks to a non-existent Dallas pass rush, so don’t expect Odell Beckham Jr. finishing with just 35 yards again.
Writer’s Prediction: The Giants (PK) get the big road win in Big D, 27-21.
New England Patriots (+6) at Arizona Cardinals (-6) – 8:30 PM ET
Don’t be seduced by the rare opportunity of betting on the Pats as underdogs. They could very well lose by more than six points at Arizona even with Tom Brady. That’s just how good the Cards are. But instead of Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo is going to make his first-ever start at quarterback, and the pass-heavy Pats will likely struggle on offense as a result.
Writer’s Prediction: The Cards (-6) just cover, 27-20.
Monday, September 12
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Washington Redskins (+3) – 7:10 PM ET
The Steelers will have the better quarterback, the better running back, the better defense, and the best receiver on the field at FedEx Field. One of the positions they don’t have a legitimate advantage in is tight end. But they were one of the best defenses at containing tight ends last season, so expect a silent night out of Jordan Reed.
Writer’s Prediction: The Steelers (-3) take it, 28-24.
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) – 10:20 PM ET
Here we go again. This time last season, the Niners were also home underdogs against a run-first team with a very good defense. And of course, they came away 20-3 winners against the Vikings.
A weird 10:30 kickoff isn’t exactly the ideal scenario for Jared Goff in his first career NFL start, and the No. 1 pick also hasn’t looked good in preseason. These late kickoff games have a habit of producing some wonky results, and this could yet be another one.
Writer’s Prediction: The Niners (+2.5) pull off another opening week upset with a 21-14 win.
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