Boy, what a wild Week 3 it’s been… A good number of teams wowed football fans with some stunning upsets, which goes to show that parity is still king in America’s favorite sport.
What do all those unexpected triumphs and heartbreaks mean for your wagering action this coming Week 4? Let’s size up each upcoming matchup below to put our fingers on the pulse of what should be another insane betting week ahead in the NFL.
The Dolphins will be glad to take their first win of the season any which way, even if it means escaping with an overtime victory by way of a missed game-winning field goal from the lowly Browns in regulation. Ryan Tannehill had another mixed bag of an afternoon (319 passing yards, three touchdowns and two picks), but at least it wasn’t as bad as Andy Dalton’s showing against the Broncos.
Dalton threw for just 206 yards with one interception and no TDs as the Bengals lost at home to Denver, 29-17, and that was with Denver having a rookie QB start in his very first road game as a pro. Considering that the Bengals are just 2-4 in their last six contests held in Cincy (1-4-1 ATS), the ‘Fins may give their head coach Adam Gase more kinder words to say about his team’s win during next Sunday’s post-game press con.
Writer’s Prediction: The Dolphins get back to the .500 mark with a 27-23 win over the Bengals.
Sunday, October 2
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars – 9:30 AM ET
With Sunday’s defeat to the Ravens, Jacksonville has now started its season with an 0-3 record for the third time in four years under head coach Gus Bradley. The old Blake Bortles showed up again that day, having thrown a back-breaking pick for what should’ve been a game-winning drive and finished with three interceptions and just 194 passing yards.
Seeing that the Jags are back to their same ol’ bumbling ways, the Colts may see this as another great opportunity to one-up their division rivals once more, even if they just eked out a win from a seesaw battle with the depleted Chargers (26-22). Indy won six-straight meetings with the Jaguars before last year’s loss, but that was mainly because Andrew Luck didn’t suit up in that previous contest and for much of the 2015 season.
Writer’s Prediction: Colts win easy, 28-16.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots – 1:00 PM ET
Finally, the Bills have shown what they’re entirely capable of with the right drive, having humiliated the Cardinals at home, 33-18. Buffalo dealt Carson Palmer his worst start as Arizona’s starting QB by picking him off four times, and with LeSean McCoy rumbling for 110 of the team’s combined 208 rushing yards and two of the team’s three TDs on the ground.
However, all that positivity may be for naught as the Bills make their dreaded annual trip back to Foxborough this coming Sunday. They’ve lost nine of their last 10 games in New England (albeit with a decent 5-4-1 ATS record during that span), and the Pats have yet to suffer a loss this season even with their third-string quarterback at the helm. A 28-0 dismantling of a tough Houston Texans team last Thursday night speaks volumes of the creepy, all-winning voodoo that mastermind Bill Belichick has conjured up, with the unlikely Jacoby Brissett as his current magic wand.
Writer’s Prediction: The Patriots overcome the four-week suspension of Tom Brady with flying colors by remaining undefeated and sending Buffalo back down to earth in the process, 31-13.
Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets – 1:00 PM ET
Jimmy Graham: welcome back to NFL relevance!
Only the Niners can bring out the best from the Seahawks, as with what the latter’s convincing 38-17 win on Sunday over the former would suggest. Graham finally looked like he belonged in Seattle’s offense, hauling in six catches for an even 100 receiving yards and a TD. The Seahawks’ passing game even became more frightening with receiver Doug Baldwin breaking out for even better numbers than Jimmy: 164 receiving yards and another touchdown on eight catches.
That being said, the Jets are running straight into a defensive buzzsaw that they may not be able to handle, much like when the Chiefs nearly blanked them in Week 3, 24-3, with Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing a downright abysmal six interceptions. “Six-patrick” may not commit that many blunders this coming Sunday, but he’ll definitely have a long afternoon going up against Seattle’s D, which has allowed the fewest points in the league on average for the past three seasons.
Writer’s Prediction: Seattle makes quick work of New York, 29-15.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears – 1:00 PM ET
The status quo remains in the NFC North, with the Packers and Vikings making solid cases for playoff contention while the Lions and the Bears fend off one another from ending up in the division’s basement.
It really doesn’t matter for Chicago who’s starting at quarterback right now, be it the ever-erratic Jay Cutler (out in this past Sunday’s loss to the Cowboys due to a sprained right thumb) or the undependable Brian Hoyer. The Bears just find ways to turn the ball over, as they now have six turnovers through the first three weeks – all that have resulted into losses.
At least the Lions made their 37-24 defeat to the Packers on Sunday look not as bad in the end as it started out. Matthew Stafford still went 28-for-41 for 385 passing yards, three TDs and a pick. And that’s even with a running game set to become more of an afterthought with Ameer Abdullah likely bound to miss the rest of the season with a serious foot injury.
Writer’s Prediction: Detroit narrowly beats the Bears, 29-27.
Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens – 1:00 PM ET
So Oakland’s defense surrendered only 17 points in the close win over the Titans to bounce back from a horrific two-game start for the season, but that unit still gave up 393 yards of offense to Tennessee on Sunday. That total is now up to a whopping 1,354 yards allowed, which now has Baltimore QB Joe Flacco licking his chops for Sunday’s meeting with the Raiders.
Flacco didn’t throw an offensive touchdown in the Ravens’ win over the Jaguars, but at one point during the game, he threw for a franchise-record 21-straight pass completions. Oh, and the Ravens are 3-0 to start 2016 in large part due to the golden boot of Justin Tucker, who knocked in four field goals on Sunday, including the 52-yard game-winner with 10 seconds left in the fourth quarter. Baltimore is now perfect for the season after three one-possession victories and after losing so many of such scenarios the previous campaign.
Writer’s Prediction: The Ravens hold off the visiting Raiders, 23-20.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans – 1:00 PM ET
Although the Texans were shamefully shutout by the Brady-less Pats last Thursday, they still like their chances against their division rival Tennessee in Week 4. After all, Houston has won seven of its last eight games versus the Titans (SU/ATS), with last year’s couple of victories resulting into a combined score of 54-12.
Making matters worse for the Titans is that second-year QB Marcus Mariota is still finding it hard to kick out his pick-throwing habits. Mariota’s been intercepted at least once in each of his starts this season, giving him very little room for error against a Houston D that’s still feared by virtually all of the teams in the league not named New England.
Writer’s Prediction: The Texans cruise to a 28-10 win.
Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins – 1:00 PM ET
How much Browns-ier can the Browns really get?
Cleveland blew away another chance at their first win of 2016 when newly-signed kicker Cody Parkey missed the 42-yard, game-winning field goal in regulation along with two other doable attempts in the loss to Miami. Well, at least we saw a glimpse of what Terrelle Pryor can bring to the table, as he became the first Cleveland player since 1977 with at least two pass completions, two carries for gains and two receptions in a game (and with a rather surreal 144 receiving yards at that).
Sadly, not every Cleveland player is as gifted as Pryor, and the team will be facing a hot Redskins team that just beat their division rivals in the Giants. Kirk Cousins went error-free against New York (296 passing yards, two TDs), and that’s more than enough compared to Cleveland’s starting QB mess, regardless of what Cody Kessler’s NFL debut (244 yards on 21-of-33 passing; no TDs or INTs) has to say otherwise.
Writer’s Prediction: Washington wins in our nation’s capital for the first time since December of last year, 20-13.
Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 4:05 PM ET
The Broncos have barely missed a gallop from their Super Bowl-winning season, and that’s even with unproven Trevor Siemian at the helm. In fact, Denver’s offense looked even more crisp with the second-year QB from Northwestern calling the shots. If 312 passing yards and four TDs in Siemian’s maiden road start and win over the tough–as-nails Bengals doesn’t impress you still, you’re just plain hating on this upstart play-caller.
Perhaps Siemian can change your mind after he takes on the struggling Buccaneers in Week 4. The Bucs just allowed the Los Angeles Rams – the same Rams team that only managed to muster up three points in Weeks 1 and 2 – to beat them and rack up 37 points on their own home turf. Tampa Bay’s D has now allowed a total of 101 points to start the season, which goes to show that it has not improved from last year wherein it finished dead-last in the NFL at 33.7 points allowed per contest.
Writer’s Prediction: The Broncos trample over the Buccaneers, 33-16.
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals – 4:25 PM ET
What shocked you more this week; a four-interception game from Arizona’s Carson Palmer, or the offensively-inept Rams scoring 37 points?
Both the Rams and Cardinals are coming off baffling results in Week 3 – for better and for worse, respectively. Still, it’s hard to write off the Cards just yet, especially when they’re headed back home where they’ve won six of their last eight. Also, they’ve defeated the Rams in four of their last five meetings (SU/ATS), and they did a better job at taking care of the ailing Buccaneers than Los Angeles did in Week 2’s 40-7 beat-down in Glendale.
Writer’s Prediction: The Cardinals soar towards clearer skies once more, 37-17.
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers – 4:25 PM ET
In the Week 3 win over the Bears, the Cowboys’ young guns have exceeded expectations once again. Dak Prescott threw just five incomplete passes and finished with 248 passing yards and a touchdown on Sunday, while fellow rookie and Ezekiel Elliott torched Chicago for 140 rushing yards on 30 carries.
This one-two punch for the Big D must capitalize on the demoralized 49ers in Week 4, especially with the Niners having been just drubbed by the Seahawks. Remember when San Francisco won in Week 1 against the Vikings last year only to lose the next four contests? Yup, they’re trending in that direction all over again this season. And don’t let Carlos Hyde’s 103 rushing yards and two TDs against Seattle fool you; most of those yards and both of those scores on Sunday came in garbage time. You just keep running that ball when you’re down by 33, San Fran…
Writer’s Prediction: Dallas improves to 3-1 for the season, 24-15.
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers – 8:30 PM ET
On one hand, we have Pittsburgh scoring just three points in Week 3 against a surprising, upstart Eagles team in Philly. On the other, we have Kansas City, which allowed just three points to the Jets behind an aforementioned and staggering six interceptions. Two of which came from star cornerback Marcus Peters: last season’s leader in picks with eight.
While siding with the Chiefs this coming Sunday night seems like a no-brainer, it’s worth noting that the Steelers will have their standout workhouse in Le’Veon Bell back from his three-game suspension. Having said that, we expect the Steelers to put up a much better fight this time around even against KC’s stout stop unit. Sunday’s loss, by the way, marked only the second time that the Steelers lost a game with less than 10 points scored over the past three seasons (26-6 to Baltimore in December of 2014).
Writer’s Prediction: Pittsburgh barely survives Kansas City, 28-25.
Monday, October 3
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings – 8:30 PM ET
At the rate that Minnesota’s defense is performing, the team may not need Adrian Peterson carrying the ball on offense after all. For as long as Sam Bradford continues to efficiently command the offense, the Vikings can take a page off of last year’s championship-winning Broncos team and ride their D all the way into the postseason.
Bradford, mind you, has yet to throw a pick in his first two starts with the Purple and Gold, and the Vikes currently have an NFL-best plus-eight turnover ratio (nine turnovers caused to just one fumble lost). Whereas the Giants, who ended up with a decision of three points or less for the third-consecutive week, are the second-worst team in the league when it comes to giveaways (eight) versus takeaways (two).
If Eli Manning has a sloppy day through the air – he has thrown three picks this season already – leave it to Minny to capitalize on those freebies from New York to the fullest, all the while countering with the team’s own brand of sound, turnover-free football.
Writer’s Prediction: The Vikings keep their regular-season record spotless with a 23-19 victory under Monday Night Football’s bright lights.
