No. 2 Louisville vs. No. 15 Jacksonville State Preview
Where: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
When: Friday, March 17, 2:45 PM ET
Line: Louisville Cardinals (-20) vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (+20); total: 134.0 – view all NCAAB lines
TV Broadcast: CBS
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Betting on the Louisville Cardinals (24-8)
In their first game back in the NCAA Tournament following last year’s tourney self-ban, the Cardinals will be served what should be a mere appetizer. That said, the Cardinals can’t take any opposition too lightly, as 15-seeds like Jacksonville have traditionally upset two-seeds.
The Cardinals could prevent that with their suffocating defense that allows just 65.8 points per game and ranks sixth in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. Showing their full strength defensively against Jacksonville Sate could be a bit of an overkill, though. The Gamecocks are among the lowest scoring teams in the nation, averaging just 69.7 PPG.
As for their own offense, the Cardinals will be leaning on Donovan Mitchell, who leads the team with 15.7 PPG. Quentin Snider, meanwhile, is expected to lend Mitchell a hand on offense. He is putting up 12.7 PPG.
If they scouted Jacksonville State correctly, the Cardinals could be seen tempting the Gamecocks take the three-ball. The Gamecocks are shooting a poor 29.8% from the three-point area. The Cardinals should also be able to make life hard in the paint for Jacksonville State. They are 10th nationally in blocks with 5.5 per game, while rejecting 16.4% of their opponents shots at the rim.
The Cards are 3-1 ATS in their last four games as favorites by at least eight points.
Betting on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (20-14)
Similar to Louisville, the Gamecocks also bank on their defense to win games. The Gamecocks paced the OVC in scoring defense, limiting opponents to only 67.6 PPG.
However, that’s not much to brag about against Louisville, considering that the Gamecocks played just one top 50 RPI team in Maryland, which blew them out in a 92-66 loss on December 12.
The Gamecocks play slow, as they are 329th in the nation in adjusted tempo per 40 minutes with a rating of 63.2. Putting the game’s pace in slow motion could help the Gamecocks keep the game closer than what the spread suggests. Moreover, they could take advantage of the Cardinals’ poor free throw shooting form. The Cards are just 67.6% at the charity stripe. The Gamecocks can’t laugh too hard about Louisville’s body of work at the foul line, though, as they are just a shade better with a 68.5% clip there.
If anything, Jacksonville State’s coach Ray Harper is familiar to playing opposite Rick Pitino. Before landing a job as coach of the Gamecocks, Harper was an assistant for four years in Western Kentucky, which Louisville played three times during that span.
Malcolm Drumwright leads the team in scoring with 12.6 PPG.
The Gamecocks are 3-1 ATS in their last four games as underdogs.
Writer’s Prediction
Louisville (-20) wins, 92-68.
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