If the recently-concluded Golden Globe Awards is any indication, the 89th Annual Academy Awards, set to take place at the Dolby Theater in Los Angeles a little over a week from now, is bound to deliver some unpredictable results with racial diversity at the forefront.
For the first time in history, the Oscars have at least one African-American actor represented in all the major acting categories. Four out of the nine Best Picture nominees revolve around black culture for the most part as well, which means a major shake-up on how the Academy will vote for its winners could possibly be on the horizon.
Hollywood’s social politics aside, this year’s Oscars will surely crown some very deserving films and thespians regardless of color. And with that, let’s run down the nominees and odds for the six major Academy Award categories below along with our predictions on who’ll be the ones to take home a golden statuette on February 26.
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2017 Golden Globe Awards Odds and List of Nominees
Best Picture
Nominees (Odds):
La La Land (-600)
Moonlight (+375)
Hidden Figures (+450)
Manchester by the Sea (+1,400)
Lion (+4,000)
Hell or High Water (+5,000)
Fences (+6,000)
Hacksaw Ridge (+6,000)
Arrival (+12,500)
With a record-tying 14 nominations, La La Land could very well dominate the Oscars this year. The dazzling musical about two lovestruck entertainers trying to make it big in L.A. just swept the Golden Globes with its eight wins in as many nominations, and the theme of finding your dreams in Tinseltown is exactly up the Academy’s alley.
The next closest and only true contender to La La Land is Moonlight; a story about a gay African-American’s life as he tries to make ends meet in Miami. This film embodies everything that the Academy wants to rectify with its highly-criticized “whitewashing” of its nominations, and a damn powerful and beautifully shot one at that.
On the other hand, the former is just too uplifting of an affair that it’s hard not to side with a movie with a more positive tone. La La Land‘s accolades from multiple other award ceremonies is enough proof as well to back up that claim.
Writer’s Prediction: La La Land
Best Director
Nominees (Odds):
Damien Chazelle – La La Land (-2,000)
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight (+750)
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea (+900)
Denis Villeneuve – Arrival (+4,000)
Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge (+4,000)
It’s one thing to direct a cinematic gem, and it’s another to direct one that’s basically entirely made of dance-and-song numbers. It’s no wonder then why Damien Chazelle’s passion project for classic musicals deserves a ton of recognition for helming La La Land with enough heart and joy without being too cheesy or unevenly paced.
In a different year, Barry Jenkins – with his masterful chronicle on the volatile upbringing of Chiron – is an easy shoo-in to win this award, but he just so happened to run into the vibrant buzzsaw that is La La Land.
Writer’s Prediction: Damien Chazelle
Best Actor
Nominees (Odds):
Denzel Washington – Fences (-150)
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea (-120)
Ryan Gosling – La La Land (+1,000)
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge (+4,000)
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic (+8,000)
Denzel Washington and Casey Affleck lead the pack of Best Actor nominees, with the two having very opposite acting styles and characters portrayed.
Washington, whose role in Fences as a waste collector with aspirations of becoming an athlete, exhibits his ineffable range that’s akin to his finest works of past. Meanwhile, Affleck’s turn as a janitor faced with the unenviable task of looking after his nephew after the passing of the boy’s father, conjures up overwhelming emotions for his viewers with only the slightest hint of the obvious harrowing grief within.
Affleck had won a handful of Best Actor awards for his work in Manchester by the Sea, but Washington sort of surprised the industry by winning at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. This is quite the toss-up, but we’ll go with Affleck edging past Washington, as he was able to with his audience with less theatrics from his character’s contained emotions.
Writer’s Prediction: Casey Affleck
Best Actress
Nominees (Odds):
Emma Stone – La La Land (-600)
Natalie Portman – Jackie (+300)
Isabelle Huppert – Elle (+900)
Ruth Negga – Loving (+5,000)
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins (+6,000)
Not to take away anything from Ryan Gosling’s superb performance, but it was truly Emma Stone who made La La Land such a wondrous experience to begin with. Stone seemingly made her performance of a lifetime look effortless, as her natural wit and charm in the film was front-and-center for the Academy to see and to solidify her as a bona fide big-movie actress for years to come.
As for the other notable nominees: a lot of steam was lost by Natalie Portman and her portrayal of Jacqueline Kennedy-Onassis when Stone started racking up Best Actress awards left and right. Meanwhile, silver-screen legend Meryl Streep’s inclusion here feels more like the Academy had to throw her into the mix just so she can put “20-time Oscar nominee” on her already impressive resumé.
Writer’s Prediction: Emma Stone
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees (Odds):
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight (-2,500)
Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals (+1,400)
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water (+1,400)
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea (+1,800)
Dev Patel – Lion (+1,800)
Mahershala Ali’s depiction of a drug dealer-turned-father figure in Moonlight was just as engrossing as the film’s main protagonist. In fact, he was downright magnetic in his every on-screen appearance.
Ali is one of those underrated actors that obviously had talent, and his skills were never as apparent in Jenkins’ masterpiece. In our humble opinion, none of the other nominees stand a chance at pulling off an upset.
Writer’s Prediction: Mahershala Ali
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees (Odds):
Viola Davis – Fences (-5,000)
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea (+1,000)
Naomie Harris – Moonlight (+1,400)
Nicole Kidman – Lion (+3,300)
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures (+4,000)
This is perhaps the easiest category for us to call. The conspiracy theorist inside us tells that a mere supporting actress nod for Viola Davis is the means for the Academy to all but award her with a golden statuette for her fantastic work in Fences. However, we’d be remiss to neglect the veteran actress’ brilliant command in the film.
Davis was a sheer force as Washington’s suffering and enduring wife, which brought out the two-time Oscar nominee’s strengths in spades. So much so that she basically stole every scene with Denzel in it, giving Fences more unbearable yet captivating weight than what the main plot about its lead insinuates.
Writer’s Prediction: Viola Davis
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