The unpredictable lottery that is the AL Cy Young produced another surprise last year as Dallas Keuchel came out of nowhere to walk away with the award. The Houston Astros ace became the 11th different winner of the award in the last 11 seasons. Might 2016 produce another new winner, and if so, who will it be?
Let’s take a good look at the top three favorites for the 2016 AL Cy Young award in terms of the betting odds, as well as a couple more contenders who could spring another Keuchel-caliber surprise. Meanwhile, don’t forget to check out our breakdown of the 2016 NL Cy Young race.
Chris Sale’s superficial stats (13-11, 3.41 ERA) were far from Cy Young-caliber, but they hardly tell the story of just how dominant he was. Sale shattered his single-season strikeout record with 274, and had a league-best 11.82 K’s per nine innings. His 3.41 ERA looks mediocre, but he actually had a 2.73 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which was tops in the AL.
The Cy Young voters certainly took notice of Sale’s spectacular season by voting him fourth last year; he even garnered a few MVP votes for his troubles. If the White Sox bounce back from a very disappointing season and give their ace some much better support, Sale should be quite a steal at +250 to win his first ever Cy Young.
David Price, LHP, Boston Red Sox
One of the splashiest names to move during free agency, David Price is off to his third AL East team after joining the Boston Red Sox in a blockbuster deal.
Price was already having a fine season with the Detroit Tigers in 2015, but he raised his game to another level when he was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays. Price went 9-1 in 11 starts with a 2.30 ERA for Toronto with a whopping 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. His overall numbers – 18-5, 2.45 ERA (tops in the AL) – nabbed him the runner-up spot in last year’s AL Cy Young voting.
Price has a 6-1 record with a 1.95 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 11 career starts (74 innings) at Fenway Park. If he can translate those Cy Young-caliber stats into a full season’s worth of home games, his price of +300 should pay off nicely.
At first glance, it looked as if 2014 Cy Young winner Corey Kluber had a truly horrific year. He finished with a league-high 16 losses last year, and a 3.49 ERA. Don’t be fooled, though; Kluber was still pretty good. He had a 2.97 FIP (sixth in the AL) and was fourth in Wins Above Replacement (WAR).
Kluber has experienced both extremes over the past two years (from 18 wins to 16 losses) so it shouldn’t be too much of a shock if he settles somewhere in between this season. Whether that’s enough for him to win a second Cy Young, which he’s priced at +350 to do, remains to be seen.
Sleeper
Chris Archer, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Chris Archer had quite the breakout campaign in 2015. The Tampa Bay ace finished 12-13 with a 3.23 ERA, but struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings (second only to Sale in the AL) and finished fifth in Cy Young voting.
At this point, no one should really be sleeping on Archer as a legit Cy Young contender, but his current price of +1,200 (only seventh in the AL) suggests he’s still being a bit undervalued. For anyone looking for excellent value in the AL’s arms race, Archer’s the man.
Long Shot
Marcus Stroman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
With Price now in Boston, it’s Marcus Stroman’s turn to be the undisputed ace in Toronto. The 24-year-old started just four regular season games in 2015 due to a torn ACL, but was he ever dominant in those four games. He went a perfect 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA and 18 strikeouts.
Stroman will have the luxury of having one of the most prolific offenses in the league, and should be able to rack up his fair share of wins if he stays healthy. At +3,300, he represents the best value among those with the longest odds to win the Cy Young.
Writer’s Prediction
Sale (+250) goes on another strikeout tear this year as he scores his very first Cy Young award.
