Real Madrid are on the brink of a shock Champions League exit. The 2014 champions are down 2-0 to German club Wolfsburg, but will be at home for the second and decisive leg on Tuesday. The Spanish giants have been incredibly prolific at home this season. Can Cristiano Ronaldo and co. get the goals they need to book another semifinal berth or will Wolfsburg complete the major upset?
Get a complete preview of this make-or-break quarterfinal second leg below. Meanwhile, check out our preview of Tuesday’s other second-leg action, Manchester City vs. PSG.
There are only a handful of teams in Europe you’d confidently wager on to overturn a 2-0 first leg deficit, and Real Madrid are one of those teams. The oddsmakers are also pretty bullish on the Spanish giants’ chances, and still have them priced at -105 to move on to the semis for the sixth-straight season.
Who wouldn’t be confident of a Real victory given their outstanding form at the Bernabeu? Real are 14-1-2 (wins-draws-losses) with an incredible 64 goals scored and just 14 conceded at home in La Liga, with their only losses coming to rivals Barcelona and Atletico.
Real have been even more dominant at home in the Champions League. In four home games this season, they’ve won all four by an average of nearly four goals per game.
Real had a nice little warm-up to their second leg matchup by thrashing Eibar 4-0 at home despite fielding a much-weakened team. Cristiano Ronaldo needed no rest, as he recorded his team-high 44th goal of the season.
Ronaldo, the Champions League’s top scorer with 13 goals, will lead an attack that has superstars at every turn. Gareth Bale and Karim Benzema will likely start alongside Ronaldo, but with the likes of Jese and James Rodriguez (both of whom also scored over the weekend) in reserve, there’s every reason to think there are goals in this team.
Real will need to score four goals to win the tie if Wolfsburg scores once, which will be a concern. But scoring at the Bernabeu isn’t as easy as it seems. Real have yet to concede a goal at home in the Champions League this season.
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Betting on Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg are 90 minutes away from an improbable Champions League semifinal berth. They find themselves with a two-goal lead to protect in the second leg at the Santiago Bernabeu after a terrific performance at home.
Obviously, the toughest test is yet to come as they must weather the inevitable storm that’s about to hit them in Spain. Wolfsburg have not fared well away from home this season. They’ve won just four of a combined 18 Bundesliga and Champions League away matches, with only 17 goals scored.
However, they’re priced as -125 favorites to go through to the semis exactly because they don’t have to win in Spain. They can lose 1-0, 2-1 or 3-1 and still go through because of the away goals rule.
With a nice two-goal advantage, they have the luxury of sitting deep and making it tough for Real to break them down. And with Real likely committing men forward in their chase for goals, Wolfsburg will have the spaces to exploit in Real’s suspect defense. Julian Draxler, Andre Schurrle and Max Arnold are all capable of hurting Real with their speed and creativity on the counterattack.
It should also be noted that Real’s last home loss in Europe came against another German club, Schalke, in last year’s quarterfinal second leg.
Writer’s Prediction
Real fall just short of the semifinals despite a 3-1 win. However, the total just about goes over 3.5 goals.
