Despite a disappointing retirement at the US Open, Dominic Thiem is still having a terrific year. He’s one four titles in 2016, including one on the hard courts of Acapulco. Thiem is 18-8 on the surface this season, and since his victory in Mexico, he hasn’t lost on hard court to a player currently outside the top 15 in the world. His losses to Kevin Anderson and Juan Martin Del Potro have both been due to retirement.
There is only one other player currently ranked in the top 15 other than No. 10 Thiem – that’s No. 15 Nick Kyrgios. Thiem is the tournament’s No. 1 seed, and should be able to make the final if his health holds up. He won his lone meeting with Kyrgios, although the Aussie also had to retire in that match last year.
Nick Kyrgios
Kyrgios suffered a similar fate as Thiem at the US Open, as he was forced to retire in the Round of 32. However, the 21-year old Aussie looked fine on his return to the court as he disposed of Andrej Martin in their recent Davis Cup matchup in straight-sets.
Kyrgios owns two hard court titles this season – an indoor title earlier in the year in Marseille, and an outdoor title in Atlanta, where he beat No. 1 seed John Isner as the No. 2 seed. He also made the semifinals of Dubai, where he lost to US Open champion Stan Wawrinka.
However, keep in mind that Kyrgios has a habit of crashing out early in hard court tournaments. He went down in the first round of Indian Wells and the Canadian Masters, and in the second round of the Cincinnati Masters.
Grigor Dimitrov
Grigor Dimitrov is a good tennis player – hence, his No. 3 seed in this tournament – but he’s a step below the very best. His last four losses – including in the Olympics – have all come against top-10 caliber players (Andy Murray, Kei Nishikori, and Marin Cilic twice).
The 25-year-old Bulgarian is 24-12 on hard court this season, although his last title on any surface came back in 2014. His best chance to win this tournament will likely be if the top seeds above him falter. He’s 1-0 against No. 2 seed Kyrgios, but is 0-1 against top-seed Thiem, with that loss coming earlier this year.
Sleeper
Viktor Troicki
Troicki is a high risk bet to win this tournament, but he could have an equally high reward. The world No. 33 has gotten out of the first round in just three of his last nine tournaments. On one of those three, though, he made it all the way to the semifinals at Winston-Salem as a No. 9 seed.
If Troicki can safely navigate his way past the earlier rounds in China, he’s got enough quality to hold his own against the very top seeds. He’s 1-0 in his career against top seed Thiem, and has won two of three meetings with No. 3 seed Dimitrov.
Long Shot
Borna Coric
Coric is another high-risk, high-reward proposition due to his dubious health. The world No. 42 recently defeated Benoit Paire, Kyrgios, and Rafael Nadal to reach the quarterfinals of the Cincinnati Masters. However, he had to retire against Marin Cilic, and also retired in his first-round US Open matchup.
If the 19-year-old can just stay on the court, he is a major threat to spring a surprise and win his first career ATP World Tour title in Chengdu.
Writer’s Prediction
Thiem manages to stay on the court in China, and it results in his fifth title of the season.
