It’s hard not to keep an eye on the train wreck of the league this season, the Cleveland Browns. And while they won’t steal one away from the playoff chasing Packers, they may be able to bring a payday. The Green Bay Packers are currently 2-3 straight up and 3-2 against the spread on the road while the Browns are 2-4 against the spread when playing at First Energy Stadium.
Green Bay is tied with three other teams at 6-6. That wouldn’t be so bad but there is even another team outside of the current playoff picture that is ahead of them at 7-5. The math just doesn’t look good. The loss of Aaron Rodgers was huge. They have only won two of six games without their ace. Brett Hundley is a very good athlete but his inexperience has really shown. Last week they won but he did not event break 100 yards passing.
It is no surprise that there was a dropoff but you would think after a few years to prepare Hundley would be more ready. It is not making it any easier that the Packers do not have much of a ground game. They have used three or four starting running backs this season due to injury or lack of efficacy. This is a need but I am not sure they see it that way. This could be the last game with Hundley at the helm so maybe he feels some fire and responds. Or maybe he just takes advantage of taking on the Browns. Either way we might see some more from him.
Even when the team has been good they have always had just good enough defenses. That would be the case again this year except for the fact that the offense has not been providing all that much. They are much better against the run but when you look at the personnel I am not sure it is logical. They do have one very good defensive lineman in Mike Daniels. He is a disruptor. Damarious Randall might be underrated at cornerback. He gets his hand on a lot of balls and can make plays. Sometimes that means he is getting beat a lot though as those numbers can be deceiving.
You want to say the Browns are snakebit but that would imply that luck is just not on their side. I think more accurately they are a victim of poor planning. The way they draft and develop talent is flawed and we are seeing a bottoming out. Here is an amazing stat – Cleveland is not last in the league in passing yards. I guess they are behind so much that the volume of attempts adds up.
DeShone Kizer has been a trainwreck as a rookie and it is hard to see what might change, now or in the future. Josh Gordon played his first game since 2015 and showed little rust. That might be worth something for DFS but won’t get the team a win down the stretch. Isaiah Crowell consistently runs hard but, which is admirable but he is not getting a ton of yardage on the ground. It is definitely not all his fault.
The Cleveland defense has been plugging along all season. Early on they were giving them a chance to win games but it looks like now they are just gassed. They are still stingy against the run but that might not matter much in this one. Still this group will have to play well if they are going to actually win. The offense is not going to win a shootout.
Writer’s Prediction
I know this means backing a Rodgersless GB team but this number still looks like a gift, especially at this time of the year. I am expecting Hundley to have his most complete outing thus far and to look more polished against the hapless Browns. I know the number might be automatic home hit for some but this is Cleveland. If you agree with me don’t wait on this one. Pick: Green Bay (-3.5)
