As it turned out, the meeting between the New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs in the regular season was a preview of the AFC Championship tilt. However, this weekend’s showdown will be in Kansas City, where Patrick Mahomes and company will look to clinch a Super Bowl ticket at the expense of the tried-and-tested Patriots franchise. The sportsbook favors Kansas City by a field goal, while NFL Futures price the Chiefs at +240 to win Super Bowl 53, giving the Patriots +350 odds to do the same.
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Betting Preview for the New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL AFC Conference Championship Game on January 20, 2019
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
When: Sunday, January 20, 2019, 6:40 PM ET
Line: New England Patriots (+3) vs Kansas City Chiefs (-3) – view all 2018 NFL lines
TV Broadcast: CBS
Betting on the New England Patriots (11-5 Regular Season)
The Patriots are marching into another AFC Championship Game appearance on the heels of a 41-28 win in Foxboro over the Los Angeles Chargers last week. Against the Chargers, Tom Brady passed for 343 yards and a touchdown with zero interceptions on 34-of-44 completions. Brady got plenty of help from the Patriots’ backfield. Rookie running back rushed for 129 yards and three touchdowns, while Rex Burkhead chipped in another touchdown. Brady has seen it all in the playoffs, so nerves shouldn’t be a problem for him, which is big for the Patriots because they still go as far as where the quarterback takes them. It’s also a luxury for New England that it beat the Chiefs back in Week 6 at home, 43-40. In that game, Brady slice through Kansas City’s defense for 340 passing yards and a touchdown with no interceptions on 24-for-35 completions.
On the road during the regular season New England is 3-5 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) while the Patriots have gone 2-0 ATS in their last two games.
Betting on the Kansas City Chiefs (12-4 Regular Season)
We know that the biggest reason that the Chiefs have reached this far is because of their offense. They finished the regular season No. 1 in the NFL with 35.1 points per game. They also paced the entire league with 426.1 total yards per contest. And against the Indianapolis Colts last weekend, the Chiefs’ lethal offense came into full view again, as Patrick Mahomes passed for 278 yards. While he wasn’t able to score a passing touchdown, he was one of the four Chiefs who found the end zone via the team’s ground attack in their 31-13 home win. All told, the Chiefs had 180 rushing yards on 33 carries. It’s the Chiefs’ defense, however, that is likely going to be key for Kansas City. How they contain Brady is going to dictate their fate, and if they could duplicate their stop unit’s performance last Saturday, they should be in position to beat the defending conference champions. The Chiefs sacked Colts quarterback three times and forced him to lose 24 yards while holding Indianapolis’ rushing attack down to only 87 yards and zero touchdowns.
At Arrowhead Stadium during the regular season, Kansas City went 7-1 SU and 4-4 against the spread (ATS) while the Chiefs are 2-0 ATS in their last two home games.
Writer’s Prediction
The Patriots win 34-27 and return to the Super Bowl for one final hurrah.
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