The Spurs needed something special to finally deal the Heat their first home loss of the playoffs, and they certainly provided it in a record-breaking first half to seal a 111-92 Game 3 win. Can LeBron James and the Heat respond in Game 4 or will their bid for a three-peat be in serious jeopardy?
Kawhi Leonard wasn’t one of our three Finals MVP candidates, but his big Game 3 certainly puts his name in the mix. Create a betting account today and see if Leonard and the Spurs have too much for the Heat.
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Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs NBA Finals, Game 4 Betting Preview
Series Scores & Schedule
Game 1 – June 5, Miami 95 at San Antonio 110
Game 2 – June 5, Miami 98 at San Antonio 96
Game 3 – June 10, San Antonio 111 at Miami 92
Game 4 – June 12, 9:00 PM ET, San Antonio (+5) at Miami (-5); total 197.5 – view all NBA lines
Game 5 – June 15, 8:00 PM ET, Miami at San Antonio
Game 6 (if necessary) – June 17, 9:00 PM ET, San Antonio at Miami
Game 7 (if necessary) – June 20, 9:00 PM ET, Miami at San Antonio
Betting on the San Antonio Spurs
When the Spurs are locked in offensively, they’re basically unbeatable. San Antonio was most definitely firing on all cylinders in Game 3, as they scored 71 points and shot an NBA Finals record 75.8% in the first half of a comfortable 111-92 win. The Spurs have now scored 110 or more points in 10 playoff games; they’re 9-1 SU in those games.
[sc:NBA240banner ]While the Spurs likely won’t shoot as hot again, the signs point to them continuing to have their way with the Heat defense. Gregg Popovich finally switched up his starting lineup, inserting Boris Diaw in place of Tiago Splitter to better counter the Heat’s perimeter-oriented starting five. It definitely had its desired effect, as Diaw’s excellent passing contributed to the Spurs’ 41-point first quarter.
Another very good sign is the revival of Kawhi Leonard, who scored a career-high 29 points on 10-for-13 shooting after scoring just 18 in the first two games combined. Leonard also had a slow start in last year’s finals, but averaged 16.6 PPG, 10.8 RPG on over 57% shooting in the next five games. If Leonard keeps chipping in with his points, the Spurs will be in a great position to claim Game 4.
The Spurs are 4-1 SU/ATS in their last five games.
Betting on the Miami Heat
The Heat defense couldn’t handle the Spurs’ otherworldly offense in Game 3, but Miami’s own offense has also been running smoothly against San Antonio. The Heat are shooting over 50% from the field and over 43% from beyond the arc while hitting 10 threes per game through the first three games.
LeBron James (27.3 PPG) and Dwyane Wade (18.3 PPG) have been getting their points in this series, while Rashard Lewis (9-for-18 3PFGs in the series) has kept taking and making the open looks being given to him.
The other third of the Big Three, Chris Bosh, had a silent nine points after consecutive 18 point games. Coach Erik Spoelstra likely won’t allow Bosh to have less shot attempts than Mario Chalmers again like he did in Game 3 and should devise more looks for his sweet-shooting big man.
On defense, expect a response from James to prevent another Leonard explosion and for Spoelstra to make some necessary tweaks to counter the Spurs’ rejiggered lineup. James and the Heat know how to respond well after tough defeats, which is why they haven’t lost consecutive games for 48 straight playoff games.
Miami is 8-1 SU/6-3 ATS at home in the playoffs, with the total going over in eight of those nine games.
Writer’s Prediction
The Spurs’ shooting cools down considerably, while James responds with an all-around game at home. Take Miami to cover -5 in Game 4.
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