Germany vs. Argentina promises to be an enthralling end to what has been an incredible World Cup. The tremendous individual talents of Lionel Messi will be on display as he looks to topple the German juggernaut. Check out our comprehensive preview of the match here and take a look at how experts from major media outlets are picking the game here.
A major game like this can be even more captivating, not to mention more profitable, when you get a few prop bets involved. Who will score first? Will the game go to extra time? Read on for our breakdown of five particularly juicy prop lines and create a betting account now to cash in on these picks.
This prop is an interesting one as neither Germany nor Argentina have yet to experience going 1-0 down at any point in the tournament. But one of them–barring a 0-0 game that goes to penalties–certainly will.
[sc:Soccer240banner ]Germany have the slight edge in this respect, as they’ve gone 1-0 ahead (within 90 minutes) in five of their six matches, while Argentina have done so in just four matches.
Whereas Germany have the more potent offense throughout the tournament, Argentina are dangerous going forward in their own right, and superstar Messi will be at his best in one of the biggest moments of his career. Even if you think it’s equally likely either team could score, Argentina offers the more valuable bet at +155 to score first.
More than just what team will score first, bettors can pick which specific player will bulge the twine first. Here, Gonzago Higuain offers excellent value at +850 to score that first goal for Argentina. Just take a look at the eight other players with higher odds than him.
Messi (four goals) and German goal-machine Thomas Muller (five) are obviously the favorites, but they don’t offer much value at +450. The German trio of Miroslav Klose, Mario Gotze and Andre Schurrle are not even guaranteed a spot in the starting lineup, while Sergio Aguero and Mesut Ozil haven’t played particularly well in the tournament.
Neither has Higuain, but if Angel di Maria won’t play, he’ll be the only other Argentinian besides Lionel Messi to have scored a goal in this World Cup. And with all eyes inevitably on Messi, Higuain could sneak in and poach one past the Germans. Playing for Napoli in the Italian Serie A, Higuain has 17 goals in 31 games, and having such a prolific scorer at +850 is a good situation to be in.
It’s a pretty safe bet Germany will score at some point in the 90 minutes; they’ve potted 17 goals in six matches. And by chance you’ve heard about the seven they blasted in against Brazil in the semifinal.
Midfielder Toni Kroos seems like a decent bet to open their scoring in the final. He proved his scoring chops against Brazil, where he scored two of those goals separated by mere seconds. Kroos is also a lock to start the match whereas the likes of Klose, Gotze and Schurrle aren’t such sure bets to be in the Germany first 11.
4. How will World Cup be won?
Bet on: Germany in extra-time/a penalty shootout (+1,000)
Should Germany and Argentina need an extra 30 minutes or penalties to decide the champion, they’ll be following some trends both historically and in this tournament. Three of the last five World Cup Finals have gone to extra time, with the 1994 and 2006 finals going to a penalty shootout.
This tournament has already seen seven matches go into extra time, the second-most all-time behind the 1990 World Cup’s eight. Germany and Argentina have been involved in three of those seven matches which have gone to extra time. It has also tied the 1990 and 2006 tournaments with four penalty shootouts.
Argentina and Germany have been the most successful countries in the history of World Cup shootouts, with Argentina 4-for-5 and Germany a perfect 4-for-4.
So why pick Germany in the event of extra time? They’ve got a deep bench, led by Andre Schurrle, who’s scored three goals as a substitute. And in the event of a shootout? No team has ever won two shootouts in a single World Cup; Argentina just won their shootout over the Netherlands to reach the final.
Don’t expect seeing another 7-1 goal-fest in the final. World Cup finals are historically low-scoring affairs, with the total number of goals at three or less in the last six finals as the opponents play cautiously to avoid any costly errors.
Furthermore, the defenses of both Germany and Argentina have been particularly stingy. Germany has conceded just once within 90 minutes in their last four matches, while Argentina has not allowed a goal in 330 knockout round minutes (extra time included).
However, it’s worth noting that the last time a World Cup final saw over three goals was in the 1986 final, which featured these two nations. A Diego Maradona-led Argentina prevailed over West Germany, 3-2.
