The Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets sit near the bottom of the AFC standings with identical 1-7 records and head to the road in Week 9 against very difficult opposition. How did the betting public react to these two matchups and why? Let’s find out as we delve deeper into this week’s line movement.
As always, the week’s lines move for varying reasons, but are usually due to heavy betting activity on one team or a significant injury to a key player. Please keep in mind that these are merely educated analysis as to why the lines moved the way it did. With all that out of the way, let’s get to the updated lines, which you can bet on today if you create a betting account right now.
Compare and contrast those with our complete NFL Week 9 picks and predictions from earlier in the week, which you can find here.
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NFL Line Movement for Week 9
Jacksonville Jaguars (+11) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-11)
[sc:NFL240banner ]As bad as the 1-7 Jacksonville Jaguars have been – and they’ve been really bad – the public still thinks being 12.5-point underdogs on the road at Cincinnati is just a wee bit too high. The Bengals reminded everyone they’re still pretty good by beating the Ravens last week, but they could potentially be without all-purpose back Gio Bernard, whose absence would be a big hindrance to the their ability to cover such a high spread.
On the bright side, though, they may get star wideout A.J. Green back after missing the last couple weeks due to his lingering toe issue, which should soften the blow of Bernard’s absence, and Jeremy Hill is a more than capable backup in the Bengals backfield.
As bad as the Jags have been, the Jets may be even worse. New York has lost seven games in a row, which has finally forced head coach Rex Ryan into making a switch at quarterback. Unfortunately for new starter Michael Vick and the entire Jets offense, the Chiefs just so happen to be one of the league’s best pass defenses, allowing just 195.7 yards allowed per game with 24.0 sacks on the season.
But despite their struggles, you can still count on the Jets to a) run the ball and b) stop the run particularly well, which doesn’t exactly bode well for the Chiefs who a) are a very run-oriented offense and b) aren’t so great at stopping the run themselves.
San Diego Chargers (+1.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (-1.5)
The San Diego Chargers’ bandwagon has hit a pretty big speed bump in the form of a two-game losing streak. The public wouldn’t have liked what it’s seen from Philip Rivers, who’s thrown three picks in the last two weeks, as well as an absolutely decimated defense which will still be far from full strength against an impressive Miami team that’s won back-to-back road games by double-digits.
However, it’s one thing for a rock-solid Alex Smith or an extraterrestrial Peyton Manning to outplay Rivers, but Ryan Tannehill?
St. Louis Rams (+10) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-10)
The public does not seem very optimistic about the St. Louis Rams’ chances at San Francisco. That probably has a lot to do with the fact that Austin Davis lost the entire left side of his offensive line to injury, got sacked seven times by the Kansas City Chiefs, and could face the prospect of a returning Aldon Smith.
Also, the 49ers offense scored its most points of the season so far against these very Rams in a 31-17 win three weeks ago.
Still, this San Francisco offense has been mediocre at best this season, averaging 22.8 points per game. Meanwhile, their defense has allowed at least 17 points in each of their seven games this season.
Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5)
It’s telling that even after a performance as awesome as the Steelers’ 51-34 demolition of the Indianapolis Colts, the public is still siding with the favored Ravens at Pittsburgh. That’s most likely because despite a promising two-game home winning streak, the Steelers have been too up-and-down this season, while the Ravens have been more consistent performers from week to week.
But when Ben Roethlisberger is on like he was against the Colts, he is on and the Steelers are close to unbeatable. The Ravens have given up their fair share of passing yards this season (256 per game, 22nd in the NFL), and their top corner, Jimmy Smith, will be hobbled due to a foot sprain.
The public probably sensed a little too much respect for the Denver Broncos, who are now down to three-point favorites from 3.5 on the road to New England. Remember, this is still a darn good Pats team with a red-hot Tom Brady (11 touchdowns and no interceptions in the last four games) and a 13-game home winning streak (regular season and playoffs). Teams don’t win in Foxborough, much less win comfortably.
But Peyton Manning’s Broncos might just be good enough to do just that. With an out-of-this-world passing game, a resilient running game and a suddenly lockdown defense, Denver has an answer to just about everything this season, which may also include a way to beat the Pats at home.
