Virginia narrowly avoided a major upset on Friday, pulling away late to record a 12-point win over the Belmont Bruins in the second round. It won’t get any easier for the Cavaliers, though, as standing in their way in the round of 32 are the Michigan State Spartans, the same team that ousted them in the Big Dance last year.
Can the Cavaliers exact some payback this around? Read on below for an in-depth breakdown of this East Regional showdown and while you’re at it, you can check out our third-round previews of Maryland vs. West Virginia and Kansas vs. Wichita State.
[sc:MarchMadness ]March Madness No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 7 Michigan State Spartans Preview
Where: Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte
When: Sunday, March 22, 12:10 PM ET
Line: Virginia Cavaliers (-5) vs. Michigan State Spartans (+5); total: 117.5 – view all March Madness lines
Betting on the Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia survived another opening-round scare, beating 15th-seeded Belmont, 79-67, on Friday in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Just like last year when they were put through the wringer by 16th-seeded Coastal Carolina in the round of 64, the Cavaliers had to dig deep once again, edging past a stubborn Bruins side this time around.
[sc:NCAAB240banner ]Holding a precarious 62-60 lead with 4:37 remaining in the game clock, the Cavaliers showed tremendous resolve down the stretch, unleashing a game-ending 17-7 run. The Cavaliers made plenty of clutch plays in the final 4 ½ minutes of the game, including converting all 11 of their free throw attempts to effectively seal the victory and set up their round of 32 clash with Michigan State.
Malcolm Brogdon led the Cavaliers with 22 points on 6 of 17 shooting from the field, including 4 of 9 from beyond the arc. Brogdon has carried the scoring cudgels for Virginia this season, averaging a team-best 13.9 points per game.
For head coach Tony Bennett, though, the greatest news from Friday’s victory was the re-emergence of Justin Anderson. Anderson, who’s still recovering from a pinky injury, came off the bench to score 15 big points. Anderson, who’s averaging 12.3 points and 4.1 rebounds per game this season, will be a huge boost to Virginia’s shallow bench and will give Bennett another offensive option heading into the latter stages of the tournament.
Of course, we can’t discuss the Cavaliers without talking about their phenomenal defense. They are second in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing just 86.0 points per 100 possessions. That vaunted defense bared its teeth against Belmont, with the Cavaliers scoring 19 points off 12 Belmont turnovers, their fourth-most this season.
That’s a good sign for the Cavaliers as they scored just 26 points off turnovers in their three NCAA tournament games last season. Offense has been hard to come by for Virginia this season with the Cavaliers averaging just 65.3 PPG (225th in the entire nation).
They will need to take advantage of miscues especially when they arise against Michigan State. The Spartans are averaging 11.6 turnovers per game this season, 81st in the NCAA.
The Cavaliers are 8-2 SU and 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
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Betting on the Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State held off a strong challenge from 10th-seeded Georgia, hacking out a tough 70-63 victory on Friday to advance into the third round of the national tournament. The Spartans leaned on the strong performances of veterans Denzel Valentine, Travis Trice and Branden Dawson to grab the much-needed win and forge a much-anticipated rematch with Virginia in the round of 32.
Valentine was superb for the Spartans, putting up 16 points, six rebounds, six assists and three steals. Trice chipped in 15 markers of his own while Branden Dawson was a beast down low, scoring 14 points on 6 of 9 shooting from the field.
They have led the way for the Spartans this season with all three players averaging in double-figures. Trice leads the team in scoring, averaging 14.8 PPG, with Valentine following closely behind with 14.5 PPG. Dawson has been Michigan State’s main man in the low block, averaging 12.0 points and 9.1 rebounds per game this season.
Dawson may have a monster game again when Michigan State takes on the Cavaliers in the next round. In their Sweet Sixteen matchup last season, Dawson pounded the Cavaliers inside, torching them for 24 points and 10 rebounds in Michigan State’s 61-59 win.
It won’t be that easy, for the Spartans this time around as the Cavaliers have been spectacular on the defensive end this season. Virginia is the best defensive team in the nation today, allowing just 51.2 points per game. Dawson can’t do it all alone this coming Sunday so the Spartans need their other players to step up on the offensive end.
Interestingly, that message extends to Trice and Valentine as well. They struggled offensively against Virginia in their Sweet Sixteen game last season, scoring just five and three points respectively. They will need to contribute more if they want Michigan State to notch another Sweet Sixteen appearance.
The Spartans are 2-0 in their only two meetings with the Cavaliers.
Writer’s Prediction
Virginia exacts some revenge against Michigan State (+5) with a narrow 58-54 win.
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