Three weeks into the 2015 NFL season, several upsets and unexpected close calls have made for some very interesting viewing and betting indeed. As such, there’s no lack of sleepers for Week 4 and we’ve got you covered on the best games to bet on the underdogs.
Check out the five matches that we believe are in favor of the un-favored against the spread below. For an in-depth look at this week’s games on primetime, check out our previews for Dallas vs. New Orleans and Detroit vs. Seattle right after this.
[sc:NFL240banner ]Why the Steelers will win: As wild and unpredictable as each of these two AFC North rivals’ games have seemingly been for the past several years, the spread has actually tipped in Pittsburgh’s favor (4-2 ATS for the past six meetings).
Baltimore’s D has never been the same since Terrell Suggs’ injury from the opening week too, with the team giving up an uncharacteristic 28 points per game to the opposition – bad enough for sixth-worst in the league. And have we mentioned that the Ravens are still winless this season?
Why the Steelers will lose: Big Ben won’t be available for the upcoming Thursday night battle with the Ravens after spraining his MCL in Week 3’s game in St. Louis. With Michael Vick set to take snaps under center, Pittsburgh’s prolific receiving corps could very well dip in production, especially if Vick were to even take away touches from recently reinstated star Le’Veon Bell in the running game just to prove that he can still hack it in the NFL.
Writer’s Prediction: The Steelers (+3) grind out an old-school 20-13 victory behind a stellar performance from Bell on the ground.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (+2.5) (Sun, Oct. 4, 9:30 AM ET)
Why the Dolphins will win: The seams in the Jets’ offense are starting to show, beginning with Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing for three costly interceptions against the struggling Eagles on Sunday afternoon. If Chris Ivory sits out Week 4’s game against the Dolphins, New York’s running game will be a non-factor as well. Without Ivory in the game, backup running backs Bilal Powell and Zac Stacy combined for just 34 rushing yards on 12 carries versus Philly’s middle-of-the-pack run defense.
Why the Dolphins will lose: Miami has lost the last three and seven of the past nine home games against the Jets, both straight-up and against the spread. New York’s secondary (currently tied for first in the NFL with four INTs for the season and second in opposing passer rating at 63.7) will also give underperforming Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who just threw three picks at home against the Bills in Week 3’s embarrassing 41-14 loss, quite a fit this coming Sunday.
Writer’s Prediction: The Fins (+2.5) eke by with a 19-16 win.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+9) at Indianapolis Colts (Sun, Oct. 4, 1:00 PM ET)
Why the Jaguars will win: A narrow two-point win this past Sunday over the Titans does not justify Indianapolis’ pair of 13-point losses to start the season. The Colts are struggling against solid opposing defenses, and the Jacksonville D – currently eighth in the league in yards and points allowed per game – could give Andrew Luck more headaches than solutions to his subpar 2015 so far.
Why the Jaguars will lose: The Jaguars were just lit up by the Pats for 51 points in Foxboro in Week 3, while Indy put up 35 of their own on the road against Tennessee. Sunday’s game will be in Lucas Oil, marking Jacksonville’s second week of a grueling three-game road swing. Oh, by the way, the Jags are winless in their past 10 road games.
Writer’s Prediction: Indianapolis wins by just a touchdown, helping Jacksonville (+9) cover the spread.
Cleveland Browns (+7.5) at San Diego Chargers (Sun, Oct. 4, 4:05 PM ET)
Why the Browns will win: The Chargers have not been playing inspired football of late; they’re in a two-game slide and have failed to hit the 20-point barrier in both of those contests. Even worse, San Diego has committed eight backbreaking turnovers through just three weeks of action.
Why the Browns will lose: Forget winning let alone covering the spread if Cleveland head coach Mike Pettine still insists on starting Josh McCown in favor of Johnny Football in spite of the the uncertainty surrounding McCown’s throwing hand that was slightly nicked in Week 3. Plus, Philip Rivers (664 passing yards with an 80.9 completion rate thus far this season) remains surgical with San Diego’s passing game and will look to dissect Cleveland’s iffy secondary.
Writer’s Prediction: The Browns lose, but still cover +7.5 with a close 21-17 decision.
St. Louis Rams (+7) at Arizona Cardinals (Sun, Oct. 4, 4:25 PM ET)
Why the Rams will win: St. Louis’ front seven on defense is still a threat in the pass rush as evident in their eight sacks for the season – second-best in the NFL. Something tells us that Carson Palmer’s first sacks of the season will come at the hands of the Rams’ Robert Quinn and Aaron Donald, and all of them will hurt physically and game-wise this coming Sunday for the Cards.
Why the Rams will lose: The Cards obliterated their past two opponents in the Bears and the 49ers with a combined score of 95-30. The Rams, on the other hand, have put up just 16 points for the past two weeks. Arizona has also won the last three games (ATS/SU) against its division rivals from Missouri.
Writer’s Prediction: Arizona prevails from its second-straight game against an NFC West opponent, but the Rams hang on by the slimmest of margins to cover +7 with a final score of 30-24.
Create a betting account now to cash in on any or all of these sleepers in Week 4 of the NFL’s exciting 2015 season.
