Last year, The Indianapolis Colts were a class above the rest in the AFC South as they zoomed to an 11-5 SU record to finish the season a full four games above their nearest competitors in the division. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves: the Colts were the only team in the AFC South last season to post a winning record.
This year, teams have reloaded to keep up with Indianapolis but it is likely still not enough: the Colts are still the favorites to win the division. Read on for our in-depth breakdown of the AFC South division. Also, you can also check out our preview of the NFC West as we dissect every division as the start of the NFL season draws ever closer. [sc:Football ]
2014 AFC South Preview
How far can Andrew Luck and the Colts go?
Replacing Peyton Manning as your team’s quarterback is not an easy task, just ask Andrew Luck. But the way the 24-year-old has managed to convert that pressure into results in his first two seasons with the Indianapolis Colts has left fans optimistic that 2014 will finally be the year where he will make the breakthrough and lead the Colts to a deep playoff run.
[sc:NFL240banner ]Luck showed marked improvements in his sophomore season last year as he upped his pass completion rate from 54.1 % (339-for-627) the year before to 60.2 % (343-for-570) in 2013. Although his total passing yards dipped from 4,374 to 3,822, he had the same number of touchdowns (23) and reduced his interceptions from 18 to 9.
Last year also marked a milestone in Luck’s career as he led the Colts to their first playoff victory in the post-Peyton Manning era. Luck showed tremendous composure as he led the Colts to a stunning 28-point comeback to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs 45-44 in the Wild Card game. Although they failed to beat the Patriots in the AFC Divisional Playoffs in their next game, the experience Luck and the rest of the Colts gained will prove to be valuable as they move forward this season.
With that being said, the Colts front office decided to further strengthen their offensive arsenal this past offseason when they signed wide receiver Hakeem Nicks to a one-year deal. Reports coming out of training camp, however, have said that Nicks has been a disappointment so far.
Nicks proved to be a top-class outside receiver in his five-year stint with the New York Giants, catching 311 passes for 4,622 yards and 27 TDs. His form, however, in training camp, has been sub-par so far with some pointing out that he’s still out of shape. If he can manage to sort out his fitness before the season starts, the Colts have a good chance of matching or even surpassing their 11-5 SU mark the past two seasons.
Can the Texans return to the top?
Entering the 2013 season, the Houston Texans were on a high. They finished top of the AFC South the past two seasons and were pretty confident that they can finally get over the hump and advance past the divisional playoff round for the first time in their franchise history.
What transpired though was a disaster. The whole team was a dysfunctional mess as they finished the season with 14 straight defeats to end the year with a horrendous 2-14 SU record. QB Matt Schaub, who threw for over 4,000 yards in 2012, was a shell of his former self last year, ultiamtely setting the record for pick-6’s in a season. He threw four interceptions which were returned for touchdowns in the first six games, only four less than his TD total.
Meanwhile Arian Foster, one of the best running backs in the country, struggled mightily as well, scoring just one touchdown the entire season as he was limited to eight games last year when he suffered a major back injury. Foster, however, is now fit and if he can return to the form that saw him post three consecutive 1,000+ rushing yard seasons prior to his injury, the Texans will be a legitimate threat once again.
The Texans decided to replace head coach Gary Kubiak with Bill O’Brien in the offseason. One of the crucial decisions O’Brien has done in his short stint with Houston so far is his selection of 10-year veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick as the Texans’ new quarterback. He has been excellent so far during the first scrimmages in training camp as he’s getting to grips with the intricacies of O’Brien’s new offensive schemes.
What will definitely boost the spirits of the Texans faithful this coming season is the arrival of DE Jadeveon Clowney. The No. 1 pick of this year’s draft arrives with impressive credentials, setting single-season records for sacks (13.0) and tackles for loss (23.5) for South Carolina in 2012.
His arrival will help fortify the Houston defense that was fifth-worst in the NFL in tackles made with 986 and only had 32 sacks last season which was second-worst in the entire league. The outside linebacker is still working on his rehab process after undergoing sports hernia surgery back in June but he has been a delight to watch when put through his paces during his limited practice sessions. Once he’s fully fit, the Texans will surely be a tougher team to handle this time around.
Key Player – Andrew Luck
The only question with Luck now is can he take it to the next level? Although he was already impressive last year, there were still some areas in which Luck can still improve on, particularly on his third down conversion rate.
Luck was the league leader in converting long third downs (eight yards or more) in 2012 but his efficiency in that area took a severe hit last year. He was just 28th in the league in passing on third downs, converting just 35.8 percent of his passes. Luck’s decline in that department can be attributed though to WR Reggie Wayne’s ACL injury last year.
Wayne was Luck’s leading receiver on third downs in 2012 and the sudden loss of his passing partner to injury affected Luck’s game as his conversion rate plummeted from 49.47% pre-injury to only 33% post-injury. With Wayne already fit and ready to go for next season, expect Luck’s production to improve further.
Key Game – Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (Week 6 – October 9)
It will be the battle of the last two AFC South winners as the Colts travel to Houston eager to reassert their authority over the Texans in their division. An interesting sidelight to the game is the battle between QB Andrew Luck and top pick Jadeveon Clowney in their first meeting in the pro ranks. The Texans are 3-2 SU in their last five meetings with the Colts at Houston.
Writer’s Prediction
The Indianapolis Colts (-225) will cruise to their second consecutive AFC South title while the Houston Texans (+275) will improve on their fourth-place finish last year to end up in second. The Tennessee Titans (+575) with new coach Ken Whisenhunt at the helm will finish third while the Jacksonville Jaguars (+2,000) will once again languish at the bottom.
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