Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen Preview
Where: M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, Maryland
When: Saturday, December 10, 3:00 PM ET
Line: Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen – view all NCAA Football odds and lines
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Betting on the Army Black Knights (TBA)
Army will be returning from their standard three-week bye after Week 11. Their most recent game was on November 19, where they obliterated Morgan State, 60-3. In the game, the Black Knights ran the ball 60 times for 504 yards and seven touchdowns.
In battling Navy for the 118th time, one of the longest and most played rivalries in college football, expect the Black Knights to continue doing their ground-and-pound style. They are averaging 58.7 carries per contest, by far the most in the nation, while their 328.7 rushing YPG is second.
Through 11 games, 11 different players have scored a rushing touchdown for Army. Their 37 total TDs through the ground, meanwhile, are more than starting QB Ahmad Bradshaw has completions, who is only 36-for-84 for the whole year.
With the help of their Triple Option-happy offense, an option run where three players could potentially run the ball, Bradshaw is leading the team in rushes, with 158, and has 646 rushing yards (64.6 per game) and six TDs. He’s only throwing it 10.4 times per game.
The sophomore, though, has a trio of running backs that are providing the goods. Andy Davidson, Darnell Woolfolk, and Jordan Asberry are all getting 5-plus yards per carry, but Davidson is the first-string back, and paces the team with 818 yards and nine TD runs.
As for the defense, it’s the ends and linebackers that’ll get the most action, since Navy is a team that’s also quite fond of grinding it out on the run. Army is giving up 288.9 total YPG (164.5 passing and 124.4 rushing), which is fifth-best overall.
The Black Knights haven’t beaten the Middies in 14 years, but they have a good chance to end that unfortunate streak Saturday.
Betting on the Navy Midshipmen (TBA)
Navy is coming off a humbling 34-10 defeat over the Temple Owls. With the victory, the team dropped to a 9-3 record and are now ranked 25th in the AP Poll. To add injury to insult, they will lalso ikely be without QB Will Worth for Week 14 (ankle).
Like their opponents, the Midshipmen are also a ground-and-pound squad that operates a heavy Triple Option system, and Worth is a huge part of that. He’s breaking out in his senior season, running for 1,196 yards and a league-leading 25 rushing TDs – Yes, more than Lamar Jackson. And like his QB counterpart in Army, he has measly passing numbers – 71-for-115 for 1,397 yards, with a 8-3 TD-INT ratio.
Additionally, Navy also has a long list of players that have scored a TD through the ground, with 13, and their 54 total rushing scores currently leads the nation. Their 327.5 rushing YPG only trails New Mexico and Army.
Replacing Worth is Zach Abey, who was able to get some snaps when the starting QB went down last week. Abey went 7-for-13 for 104 yards and two INTs, which was surprising since he was only a replacement and the team only averages 11.3 passes per game.
In battling the Black Knights, though, look for the Middies to go back to running the ball. Their running back by committee approach mainly has Shawn White, Chris High, and Toneo Gully, who all have 400-plus yards this season and a combined 17 TDs.
Their defense, meanwhile, has been unappealing. The 28.1 points and 435.7 total yards they give up per contest are ranked 66th and 86th, respectively. The 4.7 yards they allow per carry is also dangerous to Army’s very aggressive ground offense. Among the most alarming, though, is their inability to stop teams on crucial downs. Their opponents are 92-for-177 (51.9 percent success rate) on third downs and 16-for-25 on fourth downs (64 percent success rate).
The Middies are 4-1 SU (3-1-1 ATS) in their last five games.
Writer’s Prediction
Navy starts slow, but pulls it together mid-game and wins, 35-28.
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