Arsenal basically blew any chance they had of qualifying for the quarterfinals as they were blown away, 5-1, in the first leg in Germany. They now have the monumental task of doing what no one else has done, which is to win a Champions League knockout stage tie after losing the first leg by four or more goals.
But even with home-field advantage, winning will be tough for the Gunners to accomplish, much less winning by four goals. Four of Arsenal’s last six Champions League defeats at the Emirates have come in the round of 16, with two of those losses coming against Bayern back in 2013 and 2014.
Arsenal also had a disastrous buildup to this game as they lost 3-1 away to Liverpool. That was their fourth defeat in six matches in all competitions. Star striker Alexis Sanchez was dropped for that game, as his future with the club continues to be under significant doubt.
But don’t completely count out Arsenal, who have a maddening habit of pulling out a decent performance when the pressure is gone. They are unbeaten in four of their last five Champions League second legs (three wins, one draw) after losing the first leg. That includes a win and a draw against Bayern in their previous round of 16 meetings.
Bayern Munich will come into this second leg in imperious form. They have won their last three games in all competitions by a total score of 14-0. Since returning from the winter break, they’ve conceded just five goals in 10 matches. That amazing defensive record has been a big reason why they’ve now won 14 of their last 16 matches in all competitions. And to think many think this Bayern team has taken a step back under manager Carlo Ancelotti.
With qualification to the quarterfinals all but secured barring an almighty collapse, Bayern should be able to rest some of their key players. This is Bayern we’re talking about, though, and their depth is such that their backups still have the quality to start at any other top team.
Bayern have won just once in their last six Champions League away matches, with three losses and two draws. However, they do have a terrific record against Arsenal in this competition. They have won six and drawn two in 11 previous meetings against the Gunners in the Champions League.
Writer’s Prediction
Arsenal (+200) pull off yet another Pyrrhic second-leg victory by beating Bayern, 2-1.
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