Atletico Madrid are having another stellar Champions League campaign under manager Diego Simeone. They’ve won six of their eight European games this season (6-1-1), including three of four at home. The one home game they failed to win was in their second-leg 0-0 draw against Bayer Leverkusen in the previous round. But they were pretty much in cruise control during that game since they had already done the hard work with a 4-2 first-leg win.
Atleti have been simply amazing at the Vicente Calderon in the Champions League under Cholo Simeone. They’ve won 16 out of their 21 Champions League home games (16-4-1), and are unbeaten in nine knockout stage home legs (five wins, four draws).
The Spaniards’ shutdown defense has been a major reason for their recent European success, especially at home. They’ve kept a clean sheet in 15 of their last 17 Champions League home games. They know how to keep things compact, and don’t leave spaces at the back very often.
That’s exactly why Atleti are a very tough matchup for Leicester City. They won’t allow the English champions to get the counter-attacking situations which they’ve been able to exploit for the past couple of years. Without those chances, it’ll be very hard for Leicester to break through and get a crucial away goal.
And on the other end, Atelti have a star in Antoine Griezmann who shines on the big occasion. The Frenchman has scored or assisted in six of Atletico’s 11 Champions League goals this season. He also scored a late equalizer in Atletico’s 1-1 draw with Real in the Madrid derby over the weekend.
Leicester City’s impressive winning streak under new manager Craig Shakespeare finally ended at six games over the weekend as they fell 4-2 to Everton. However, Shakespeare didn’t play his strongest side with this big Champions League showdown in mind.
Leicester have looked like a completely different team under Shakespeare. However, it remains to be seen whether they have really improved away from home. Five of their six wins under Shakespeare have come at home, and they just barely held on in their lone away win over West Ham.
They haven’t looked particularly impressive away in Europe, either. They went 1-1-1 in the group stage despite a fairly easy group, and were thoroughly outplayed in their 2-1 first-leg defeat against Sevilla.
The Foxes will have the very tough task of trying to outfox an experienced Atletico defense that just doesn’t give up away goals. The English champions are pretty one-dimensional in the way they play, and don’t have a ton of experience in a grind-it-out European style that Atleti has all but perfected.
It’ll be foolish to completely count Leicester out, especially since they likely won’t feel too much pressure to perform. However, the matchup against Atletico away from home might just be too much to overcome.
Writer’s Prediction
Atletico show their quality with a comfortable 2-0 home win over Leicester. Take the total to go UNDER 2.5 in what should be a fairly low-scoring affair.
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