So the prodigal son returns. Pep Guardiola won a ton of games at the Camp Nou en route to leading boyhood club Barcelona to incredible heights during his time as manager. He’ll be looking for yet another good result in the famous stadium, but this time as part of the opposition as he leads his Bayern Munich side for the first leg of their Champions League semifinal on Wednesday.
Bayern, though, will be significantly shorthanded for the trip to Spain, particularly in attack. Barca will have no such problems, as arguably the most fearsome front three in Europe prepares to take advantage of the weakened German giants. Who will gain the upper hand in this much-anticipated heavyweight showdown? Read on below for our comprehensive preview of the semifinal first leg.
Get a better grasp of the final four with our team-by-team Champions League semifinal guide here.
Barcelona could not have asked for a better build-up to their semifinal date with Pep’s Bayern. Barca have swept all before them, going undefeated in their last 16 games (15 wins, one draw) in all competitions. Their incredible run has been in large part due to their all-world attacking trio of Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and Neymar firing on all cylinders.
[sc:Soccer240banner ]In their last two La Liga games, Barca have won by a combined score of 14-0, with Suarez (five goals), Messi (four) and Neymar (two) accounting for 11 of those goals. Those three were also on hand to power Barca through to the Champions League semis with a comfortable 5-1 aggregate win over Paris Saint-Germain. Messi pulled the strings in attack, while Neymar and Suarez scored all five goals.
It’s hard to see any defense in the world stopping the Messi-Suarez-Neymar triumvirate when they’re playing with the same swagger and confidence as they are right now. Look for them to lead a Barca team that should come out aggressively at home against a weakened Bayern side that has struggled in away legs this season.
The casualties in Bayern’s squad, particularly wingers Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery, will also play nicely to Barca’s gameplan. Bayern’s lack of width should give both of Barca’s attack-minded fullbacks the license to come forward and add even more pressure to a Bayern defense that will already have its hands full with the Messi-led front three.
Barcelona are undefeated in their last 10 Champions League home games (nine wins, one draw). Their last defeat came in their 2013 semifinal against Bayern Munich, which was Guardiola’s last game in charge of Barca.
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Betting on Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich’s build-up to the big game, meanwhile, has been less than ideal to say the least. Their form on the pitch has been spotty for their incredibly high standards. They humiliatingly crashed out of the DFB Pokal on penalties against Borussia Dortmund last week, and lost 2-0 away to Bayer Leverkusen in the league on Saturday. Including their 3-1 first leg quarterfinal loss at Porto, Bayern have now lost three of their last six matches.
A big factor for that dip in form has been the injuries Bayern have suffered to key personnel. Arjen Robben suffered a season-ending calf injury in the loss to Dortmund, while star striker Robert Lewandowski also suffered a concussion and a broken jaw in that game. Lewandowski is a major doubt to play in Spain, but starters Franck Ribery and David Alaba are definitely out due to injury.
Bayern were able to overcome those injuries to demolish Porto 6-1 at home in their quarterfinal second leg. But losing Lewandowski, who scored two goals in the rout, would be a major blow to their already limited attacking options.
Still, Bayern possess a handful of incredibly skilled ball players in midfield with the likes of former Barca youngster Thiago Alcantara, Philipp Lahm and Xabi Alonso. Those three must have terrific games to maintain possession and keep the ball away from Barca’s fearsome forwards.
They also have the tactical acumen of Guardiola, Barca’s former manager, on their side. Pep should know better than anyone how to set his Bayern team up to fully exploit any of his old players’ weaknesses.
As great a manager as Guardiola has been, though, he has historically failed to come away victorious in away legs. He has drawn and lost away from home in the first two rounds this season, pushing his career tally to four wins, five losses and eight draws in 17 career Champions League away legs.
Writer’s Prediction
Bayern hold firm, but Barcelona (-173) eventually break through for a narrow 1-0 home win.
