The #25 Boise State Broncos and the Oregon Ducks face-off in the Las Vegas Bowl at Sam Boyd Stadium on Saturday Dec 16.
As champs of the Mountain West Conference, the Broncos are coming into this bowl game with a 10-3 record, which includes an 8-1 record in conference play. QB Brett Rypien boasts a 63.3% completion percentage for the year, along with nearly 2,500 yards, 14 TDs and 4 interceptions. The team’s leading rusher Alexander Mattison brought in 1074 yards and 12 TDs while receiver Cedrick Wilson owned team-highs of 73 catches for 1290 yards with 6 TDs. Boise State defense finished 2nd in sacks in conference (30 this season) while giving up an average of 337 yards of total offense per game.
The Oregon Ducks are coming into the Las Vegas Bowl with a 7-5 record. QB Justin Herbert has a 66.5% completion percentage for the year, along with 1,750 yards, 13 TDs and 3 interceptions. The team’s leading rusher Royce Freeman delivered 1475 yards and 16 TDs while receiver Dillon Mitchell had a team-high of 33 catches. Boise State defense finished 6th in sacks in the Pac-12 conference (32 this season) while giving up an average of 360 yards of total offense per game.
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Betting Preview for the Boise State Broncos vs Oregon Ducks Las Vegas Bowl Game on Dec 16 2017
Where: Las Vegas Bowl
When: Saturday, December 16 2017, 3:30 PM EST
Line: Boise State Broncos (+7.5) vs Oregon Ducks (-7.5) – view all NCAA Football lines
TV Broadcast: ABC
Betting on the Boise State Broncos 10-3 (+7.5)
The Broncos, although not hearing any concrete news at this time, are also in the midst of coaching rumors. Their head coach, Bryan Harsin, could make a move this season—and one of the programs that could look to take him away is Oregon.
As far as this analysis is concerned, we’re going to approach this game with the assumption Harsin will be on the Broncos’ sideline. Entering the Las Vegas Bowl, Boise State is putting up 32.1 points per game. That number is good enough for 39th in the country. Defensively, the Broncos allow opponents to score 22.5 points per game. That number puts them at 35th in the nation.
In terms of yardage gained, Boise State passes for 254.5 yards per contest. That number is good enough for 44th in the country. Boise State also rushes for 145.9 yards per outing. That number puts them at 89th in the nation.
Betting on the Oregon Ducks 7-5 (-7.5)
The Oregon Ducks fell victim to the coaching carousel this week with first-year head coach Willie Taggart spurning the program to head back to the state of Florida as the lead man for the FSU Seminoles. These are times of flux for a program looking to fully recover from its worst season in recent memory just two years ago.
The catch, of course, is that this group opens up as eight-point favorites against the Boise State Broncos. Boise State had a more impressive record this year at 10-3, but it’s clear that oddsmakers are paying attention to each program’s resume, including strength of schedule.
There’s no question that the Ducks are going to have their minds elsewhere when the Las Vegas Bowl kicks off. The coaching staff is going to be thinking about who the next up may be, and the players—many of whom have spoken out showing how shocked they are—will have to take orders from a different lead man in Mario Cristobal.
The good news for the Ducks is that amid the confusion and concern should come motivation. The players who feel spurned by Taggart’s departure will look to show out. Cristobal, who is the team’s permanent offensive coordinator, will run the same offensive system he ran all year—this time as a tryout for a head coaching gig at Oregon next season.
On the year, Cristobal’s offense put up 36.7 points per contest. That number was good enough for 18th in the nation. In terms of yardage, Cristobal’s group tallied 186.3 yards per game through the air and 268 yards per game on the ground. Those numbers were good enough for 97th and eighth in the country, respectively.
Writer’s Prediction
As much as the conversation has, is, and will revolve around Taggart, Harsin and any and all coaching vacancies, the bigger story here is the health of Justin Herbert. Oregon was just 1-4 in games where he didn’t play (broken collar bone), while winning six of seven when he started. If Herbert weren’t available for this contest, Boise State would be able to hone in on a Ducks running game that was one of the best in the nation all year. Shutting down the likes of Royce Freeman wouldn’t be easy, but it would be doable with the passing game all but gone.
But that’s not the situation we find ourselves in ahead of this contest. The Ducks are at full strength (sans an official head coach), and they should walk away victorious both straight up and against the thread in this one. Pick: Oregon Ducks (-7.5)
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