Ohio State and TCU, the No. 1- and No. 2-ranked teams in the AP preseason poll, respectively, are going to win a lot of games this year. They’re also listed as significant favorites against the spread in their Week 1 matchups. But they face a tough challenge in covering those big spreads against feisty opposition in Minnesota and Virginia Tech.
The Gophers and Hokies are just two of the top sleepers that should not be underestimated from pulling off an upset against the spread in Week 1. Read on and get the lowdown on our top five sleeper teams and their chances of springing a surprise.
For more intriguing Week 1 matchups, check out our previews of Wisconsin vs. Alabama and Texas vs. Notre Dame.
[sc:NCAAFArticles ]College Football Week One Sleeper Picks
Minnesota Gophers (+17) vs. TCU Horned Frogs
[sc:NCAA240banner ]Why they can cover: There is a LOT of hype on the Horned Frogs this season. They brought it upon themselves, as they came out of nowhere last season to go 12-1, and were one disastrous collapse against Baylor away from making the College Football Playoff. They won’t have the element of surprise this year, though. They’ve got a target on their back now, and will be under pressure to perform.
Meanwhile, Minnesota will be a dangerous team with zero pressure. The Gophers were a tough out last year, as they covered the spread against Ohio State, Nebraska and Wisconsin (the latter two on the road) to end their season. Head coach Jerry Kill will be ready to unleash a more up-tempo offense this year, which could catch the Horned Frogs off guard. Minnesota has covered in its last four games as a home underdog.
Writer’s Prediction: Minnesota manages to keep it close and covers +17 against TCU.
Virginia Tech Hokies (+13) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Why they can cover: With four starters – three key receivers and defensive stud Joey Bosa – suspended, this could be the best chance anyone has of beating Ohio State until the CFP. That chance falls to Virginia Tech which, oddly enough, was the last team that beat the Buckeyes almost exactly a year ago.
The Hokies are no joke, especially on defense. They finished No. 14 in scoring defense last season, and should be even better this year. With a truly dominant D-line and lockdown corners returning, this could easily be the best defense in the country when it’s all said and done.
The offense can’t be trusted to score 13 points at times – see their humiliating 6-3 double OT loss at Wake last season – but that defense can shut down anyone, even the defending champs.
Writer’s Prediction: Virginia Tech’s D plays up to its potential as the Hokies cover +13 against the defending champs.
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Northwestern Wildcats (+12) vs. Stanford Cardinal
Why they can cover: The Wildcats were a feisty underdog last season. They beat both No.17 Wisconsin (as 7.5-point home dogs) and No. 18 Notre Dame (as 17-point dogs) at South Bend. Redshirt freshman Clayton Thorson is an intriguing talent at quarterback, and he’ll be helped by an experienced roster that returns 15 starters.
They face a Stanford team that could take time to settle after losing key pieces on offense and especially defense. Despite Kevin Hogan’s strong end to the season, he doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in terms of putting up a lot of points. With that in mind, the Cardinal could struggle to cover the double-digit spread.
Writer’s Prediction: Northwestern hangs around, but the Cardinal just cover -12 vs. the Wildcats.
BYU Cougars (+7) at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Why they can cover: Not only did Nebraska lose head coach Bo Pelini, it also lost do-everything back Ameer Abdullah, who will be a huge loss to the team’s offense. Mike Riley steps in to implement his new system, and could lead to some early season struggles for the Cornhuskers.
Meanwhile, the Cougars are set to get back dual-threat quarterback Taysom Hill after he broke his leg last season. Hill, who garnered some Heisman buzz last season, had 1,535 total yards and accounted for 15 touchdowns in just five games before going down.
Not only can the Hill-led Cougars keep within seven points of the Cornhuskers, they can very realistically leave Lincoln with a win.
Writer’s Prediction: BYU (+7) straight up beats Nebraska behind an inspired performance from Hill.
Arizona State Sun Devils (+3.5) vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Why they can cover: In case you didn’t notice, Arizona State was really good last season. The media members from the AP are definitely fans, and ranked the Sun Devils No. 15 in the preseason poll. Where were the Aggies? Oh yes, unranked. And yet Arizona State is a significant underdog on a (semi-)neutral field.
As of right now, the Sun Devils are a better, more complete team than A&M. John Chavis will undoubtedly improve the Aggies’ atrocious defense, but it likely won’t improve in time to stop the Sun Devils.
Writer’s Prediction: No. 15 Arizona State (+3.5) pulls the “upset” over the unranked Aggies.
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