Dustin Poirier is the favorite in the main event of this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas. However, Dan Hooker poses legitimate concern after coming fresh (relatively) off a split-decision win over Paul Felder in New Zealand back in February. The betting line opened at -200 in favor of Poirier, but has moved up to -220, whereas Hooker’s betting line opened at +160 and is now priced at +170. Who do you think will win this lightweight match? Register to make your pick and read below for our prediction.
Poirier is looking to get back to his winning ways after suffering a submission loss at the hands of Khabib Nurmagomedov in September 2019. That loss saw Poirier relenting losing the interim belt he won when he defeated Max Holloway via unanimous decision months earlier. Before losing to Nurmagomedov, Poirier had a run of four-straight victories, which also included wins over Eddie Alvarez, Justin Gaethje, and Anthony Pettis. Poirier’s striking will be key in defeating Hooker. The American fighter likes to use his boxing skills to break down opponents, as evidenced by his average of 5.59 significant strikes landed per minute. He’s also good at avoiding takedowns, as he’s done so 69 percent of the time in his UFC career, though, he may not worry much about that against Hooker, who averages fewer than .5 takedowns per 15 minutes.
With a three-inch reach advantage over Poirier, Hooker can have success in a stand-up battle in this upcoming showdown. Over 80 percent of Hooker’s landed significant strikes have come standing up. Hooker also has a background in kickboxing, so it won’t be a surprise to see him utilize his legs more in this fight to neutralize Poirier’s attacks. The New Zealander has won seven of his last eight fights, including all of his last three. In his most recent fight, Hooker scored a hard-earned victory against Paul Felder. Hooker landed 133 total strikes against 119 by Felder. Up against a better boxer in Poirier, Hooker is going to need a better performance than what he showed in the Felder fight. Hooker has 10 knockout wins and seven via submissions.
