Euro 2016 Knockout Phase Predictions, Picks and Preview

The bracket for the Euro 2016 knockout phase is set, and it’s quite the doozy. With the bottom half of the bracket containing favorites France, Germany and Spain, the eight teams in the top half have been given a glorious opportunity to get further than expected. So before the knockout stage gets going on June 25, here are our breakdown and predictions on every game, from the round of 16 all the way to the final.

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Euro 2016 Knockout Phase Predictions

Round of 16

Switzerland vs. Poland

After leading all nations in qualifying with 33 goals, Poland has just two thus far in France. However, the partnership of Robert Lewandowski and Arkadiusz Milik still inspires a lot more confidence in front of goal than any striker the Swiss can put out. The likes of Haris Seferovic and Xherdan Shaqiri just haven’t shown that they’re capable of providing that much-needed quality in attack, which could be their undoing against a surprisingly strong Poland defense.

Writer’s Prediction: Poland wins, 1-0.

Croatia vs. Portugal

Croatia capped off an impressive group stage by coming back from behind and becoming the first time to beat Spain at the Euros since 2004 – and that was without midfield maestro Luka Modric. On the flipside, the Portuguese were the only team in the round of 16 who failed to win a single game in the group stage. Even with Cristiano Ronaldo finally making his mark against Hungary, the Croatians look like the much more cohesive unit.

Writer’s Prediction: Croatia wins, 2-1.

Wales vs. Northern Ireland

At first look, getting Northern Ireland looks like a very good draw for Wales. The Welsh are surprisingly the joint-top scorers in the tournament along with Hungary with six goals, half of them coming from the in-form Gareth Bale. Don’t be quick to write off the +295 underdog Northern Irish, though. They have shown in their 1-0 losses to Germany and Poland that they are tough to break down. And with the Welsh not at their best when being the aggressors, an upset might be in the cards here.

Writer’s Prediction: Northern Ireland upsets Wales, 1-0.

Hungary vs. Belgium

Who in the world had Hungary not only getting past the group stage, but actually winning Group F over Austria and Portugal? The Magyars have been the surprise of the tournament, scoring goals while playing with a nothing-to-lose mentality. The Hungarians, though, have been playing with fire for most of the tournament, and playing a much too open game against a loaded Belgium team with so many weapons will eventually see them get burned.

Writer’s Prediction: Belgium wins, 3-1.

Germany vs. Slovakia

Germany vs. Slovakia isn’t the foregone conclusion that Slovakia’s massive +695 odds to win indicate. The Slovaks have had some decent performances in this tournament, and also have a track record of rising up against top competition. (They beat Germany 3-1 prior to the tournament.) The world champs have had problems with their attack in France, and as the Slovaks showed against England, they won’t be easy to break down defensively. The Germans are undoubtedly very good, but Slovakia should make them work.

Writer’s Prediction: It’s a draw, but Germany wins after extra-time.

France vs. Republic of Ireland

France needed late winners to defeat minnows Romania and Albania, so the Republic of Ireland should like its chances of frustrating the French. But beating an understrength, unmotivated Italy team is much different from beating the hosts, who, despite the instability with their lineups throughout the tournament, still have the much more superior offensive weapons that can win the match at any time.

Writer’s Prediction: France wins, 1-0.

Italy vs. Spain

Italy will be cursing its luck that it has to face a Spain team that, despite squandering a lead and losing their first game at the Euros since 2004, remains very dangerous. The Spanish now have the dependable goalscorer they’ve been missing with Alvaro Morata, the tournament’s co-top scorer with three goals. Spain has lost just once in its last 11 meetings with Italy (six wins, four draws), and thrashed Italy 4-0 in the final of Euro 2012.

Writer’s Prediction: Spain wins, 1-0.

England vs. Iceland

England was the “better” team in all three of their group games in that they controlled the game and made a bunch of chances. But even with all those chances, the Three Lions proved to be very toothless in attack during the group stage. It won’t be the least bit surprising if Iceland can cause England some problems. The Icelanders will be big +595 underdogs in this matchup, but they have the defensive solidity to frustrate England’s misfiring offense.

Writer’s Prediction: Iceland upsets England, 2-1.

Quarterfinals

Poland vs. Croatia

The threat of Lewandowski finally breaking out of his goalscoring slump makes Poland a dangerous team, but Modric and that excellent Croatian midfield looks like the better bet to excel in this matchup.

Writer’s Prediction: Croatia wins, 1-0.

Northern Ireland vs. Belgium

Northern Ireland’s pixie dust has to run out sometime, and after seeing what the Belgium did to the Republic of Ireland, the Red Devils have more than enough attacking weapons to send the Northern Irish crashing back down to earth.

Writer’s Prediction: Belgium wins, 2-0.

Germany vs. Spain

This mouth-watering champion vs. champion matchup will be very closely contested. Both teams love to dominate the ball, and it could come down to which team can adjust. Or, it could just come down to which team has the more reliable goalscorer, and at the moment, that team is Spain with Morata (three goals).

Writer’s Prediction: Spain wins, 2-1.

France vs. Iceland

Much like Northern Ireland, Iceland’s Cinderella run can’t go on forever. Unfortunately for them, host nation France looks set to put the Icelandic fairy tale story to bed.

Writer’s Prediction: France wins, 3-1.

Semifinals

Croatia vs. Belgium

At some point, Belgium manager Marc Wilmots will cost his team with some more questionable decisions. And unfortunately for the Belgians, it’ll come in the semis against a much more composed and tactically sound Croatian team.

Writer’s Prediction: Croatia wins, 1-0.

Spain vs. France

First, Italy; then Germany; now France. The two-time European champions will give it their all, but the effects of facing not one, not two, but three elite teams in a row will have to catch up with them eventually.

Writer’s Prediction: France wins, 2-1.

Final

Croatia vs. France

It just feels like poetic justice that the team which has fans openly sabotaging its chances of winning goes on to win the whole thing. And as good a story as France winning another major title on home soil would be, the Croatians (+700) continue the long tradition of Euros underdog stories and claim the cup.