Despite a series of incredibly close calls, the Florida State Seminoles are in the College Football Playoff and are two more wins away from defending their national championship. But reigning Heisman winner Jameis Winston will need to play like one to get the better of this year’s Heisman front-runner, Marcus Mariota, and his Oregon Ducks in the Rose Bowl.
Can Mariota and the Ducks finally deal Winston his first college loss? Read on for more on this massive Rose Bowl matchup. Also, check out our preview of the very sweet Sugar Bowl showdown between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Ohio State Buckeyes here.
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Florida State Seminoles vs. Oregon Ducks Rose Bowl Betting Preview
For the second-straight year, the Florida State Seminoles claimed the ACC crown to cap off another undefeated regular season. But despite an incredible 29-game winning streak, the defending champions are coming in as arguably the weakest and least convincing of the four playoff teams.
[sc:NCAA240banner ]The Noles’ 37-35 win over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the ACC championship game was the fourth-straight win of just six points or less and seventh of the season, which has resulted in them going a horrible 3-10 against the spread.
But the ‘Noles will be in a completely different situation against Oregon, as they will be an underdog for the first time in quarterback Jameis Winston’s reign. They may not have been able to run away from their opposition as they did when they blew everyone away last year, but they are still a very dangerous team that is obviously capable of playing any team close.
It starts (and ends) with Winston, who, despite his propensity to shoot his team in the foot with big turnovers (he’s thrown 17 interceptions this season) has managed to pull them out of the fire with uncanny poise and consistency. Winston has led his team to nine comeback wins, including four game-winning fourth quarter drives.
Florida State is definitely talented enough to move the ball on an Oregon defense giving up 414 yards per game. The emergence of running back Dalvin Cook, who’s had back-to-back 100-yard games, should also test a Ducks run defense allowing 4.12 yards per carry, third-worst in the Pac-12.
But the biggest concern lies in whether Florida State can do what very few teams have done, which is stop the Oregon offense. The ‘Noles have barely stopped anyone this season, especially the top opposition. They’ve given up over 30 points against each of their last three ranked opponents.
Betting on the Oregon Ducks
The Oregon Ducks emphatically punched their ticket to the College Football Playoff with a dominant 51-13 win over Arizona, avenging the only blemish in their 12-1 season. Since that loss to the Wildcats all the way back in Week 6, the Ducks have been simply dominant. They’ve now won their last eight games by an average margin of 26 points, covering the spread in all eight games.
Everyone knows about Oregon’s trademark offense, which has racked up at least 40 points in eight-straight games. Mariota had another spectacular night against Arizona, throwing for 313 yards and accounting for five touchdowns (two passing, three rushing) in the Pac-12 title game.
The Ducks’ defense has been equally as impressive, though, shutting out Arizona’s prolific attack in the first half and holding it to 13 total points. Oregon has now held its opponents to under 20 points in four of its last five games.
In the battle of two Heisman-caliber quarterbacks, Mariota looks to have the decided edge over Florida State’s incumbent award winner, Jameis Winston.
Mariota has been more efficient (186 passer rating, best in the FBS) and less mistake-prone (just two interceptions) than Winston this season, and will be playing against a Florida State defense ranked 11th out of 14 teams in the relatively weak ACC in terms of total defense.
Mariota and the offense should also expect to get a couple more possessions against a turnover-happy Florida State team which given the ball away 27 times this season, tied for the 11th-most in the FBS. And unlike most of the Noles’ opponents this season, the Ducks have the weapons to capitalize on those miscues with points.
Writer’s Prediction
Mariota and the Ducks finally hand Winston and the Noles their first loss in decisive fashion. Oregon wins and covers +9. Create a betting account now and be part of the historic first College Football Playoff semifinal.
