The LA Chargers and the Denver Broncos are tied for the worst record in the AFC West right now, but only one of them could be left in the basement of their division after their meeting this weekend in Mile High City. In a battle between two teams led by young quarterbacks, which will come away with a victory?
The Chargers snapped a four-game slide last Sunday, as Justin Herbert led the team in dissecting the Jacksonville Jaguars’ barely existent defense in a 39-29 home win. Despite their recent losses, Herbert has performed beyond expectations for a rookie. He had 311 passing yards in Week 2 against the Kansas City Chiefs, 330 against the Carolina Panthers, 290 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 264 against the New Orleans Saints, and 347 against the Jags. All those teams outside of the Jags are top-16 in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), with Tampa Bay, Kansa City, and New Orleans all inside the top six. Herbert, who had three passing touchdowns and zero turnovers against the Jags, will get another favorable matchup this weekend, as the Broncos are just 27th overall in DVOA. Things are not as bright on defense for the Chargers, but after facing some of the best offenses in the league over their last few games, Denver’s offense that’s just 28th in both points (19.3) and total yards (322.8) per game could feel like lighter work for Los Angeles.
The Chargers are 2-0-1 against the spread in their last three games on the road.
After scoring back-to-back wins over the New York Jets and the New England Patriots, the Broncos fell back down to Earth in a devastating 43-16 loss at home last Sunday that set them further back in the race to the top of the AFC West. Drew Lock couldn’t get the offense going in that game. He went 24-of-40 for zero touchdowns and two interceptions. Meanwhile, running back Melvin Gordon lost a fumble twice. Their propensity for committing turnovers is obviously hurting the team. The Broncos are 31st in the NFL with 2.3 giveaways per game. That said, Lock can operate in the pocket smoother in Week 8 against Los Angeles’ defense that’s not known for causing turnovers. The Chargers only have three interceptions and 13 sacks this season. Denver needs Lock, Gordon, and its offensive line to be in sync, and doing that may not be as hard as they have found against previous opponents, as LA’s defense is only 19th in DVOA. Last year, Lock earned his first career win in the pros during a 23-20 home victory over the Chargers in which he passed for 134 yards (18/28) and two touchdowns with an interception.
The Broncos are 2-1-1 against the spread in their last four home games against the Chargers.
