No. 13 proved to be very unlucky for the Memphis Tigers. After earning the highest ever College Football Playoff ranking for a Group of Five team, Memphis fell from the ranks of the undefeated with a heavy home loss to Navy, all but ending their CFP dreams. The Tigers still have a shot of winning the AAC West, though, but they must beat the still-unbeaten Houston Cougars on the road.
Read on below for our preview of this key AAC matchup. Meanwhile, see what ano other unbeaten will be up against in Week 11 with our preview of Oklahoma vs. Baylor.
[sc:NCAAFArticles ]Memphis Tigers vs. Houston Cougars Preview
Where: TDECU Stadium, Houston
When: Saturday, November 14, 7:00 PM ET
Line: Memphis Tigers (+6.5) vs. Houston Cougars (-6.5) – view all NCAA Football lines
TV Broadcast: ESPN2
Betting on the Memphis Tigers (8-1, 4-1 AAC)
[sc:NCAA240banner ]The No. 20 Memphis Tigers, like so many teams before them, just couldn’t solve Navy’s triple-option offense. The Tigers surrendered 374 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns as their perfect season – and any hope they had of making the College Football Playoff – was sunk with a 45-20 loss at home to the Midshipmen.
Quarterback Paxton Lynch didn’t have the greatest game as he completed 26-of-42 passes for 304 yards with a touchdown and an interception. With Memphis’s defense still a major liability – it’s giving up 28 points and 437 yards per game – the team needs Lynch to be at his absolute best to come away with a win at Houston.
Lynch has proven that he’s more than capable of coming up with those big games, though. He threw for 384 yards with three touchdowns in Memphis’ huge 37-24 win over Ole Miss. And as Gunner Kiel showed by passing for 523 yards with four touchdowns, the Houston defense can be breached through the air.
Memphis has been a very formidable road team in recent games. The Tigers have won their last eight road games, and have gone 5-3-1 ATS.
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Betting on the Houston Cougars (9-0, 5-0 AAC)
No. 16 Houston had to scratch and claw against a very plucky Cincinnati Bearcats team, and the Cougars did just that as they escaped with a 33-30 home win. Houston improved to 9-0 on the year, but dropped to 5-3 ATS as it failed to cover the eight-point spread against Cincy.
Dual-threat quarterback Greg Ward Jr. completed 16-of-24 passes for 161 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for 119 more yards, but he did throw a season-high two interceptions. Senior running back Kenneth Farrow also came up big with 106 rushing yards and a touchdown.
In Ward and Farrow, the Cougars have the running game to cause a mediocre Memphis defense all sorts of problems on the ground. Houston is averaging 273 rushing yards per game this season with 33 rushing touchdowns. But unlike Navy, Houston also has the threat of Ward’s arm to keep defenses honest.
Memphis’s offense holds the slight edge over Houston in points per game – the Tigers average 47.9 against the Cougars 45.9 – but Houston holds the decided edge defensively. Houston is giving up just 18 points per game, and more importantly, has forced the most turnovers in the nation with 25. Last season, that defense forced five turnovers against Memphis, which proved crucial in Houston’s 28-24 road win.
Houston has won seven-straight home games, but has gone just 3-4 ATS. The Cougars, though, have covered in four-straight meetings against the Tigers.
Writer’s Prediction
Houston (-6.5) remains unbeaten as it beats Memphis, 35-28, and just barely covers.
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