A week after suffering a 26-21 loss to the Green Bay Packers, the AFC-leading New England Patriots rebounded with a big 23-14 win at San Diego. The Patriots now welcome the Dolphins to Gillette Stadium, where they’ll seek revenge for their season-opening loss to Miami.
Can the Dolphins shock New England once again? Read on as we give you everything you’ll need to know heading into this AFC East showdown. For more on the AFC playoff picture, check out our previews for the Broncos vs. Chargers and Bengals vs. Browns.
[sc:Football ]Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Preview
Where: Gillette Stadium, New England
When: Sunday, December 14, 1:00 PM ET
Line: Miami Dolphins (+8) at New England Patriots (-8); total: 48.5 – view all NFL lines
Betting on the Miami Dolphins
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill completed 10 of 14 passes for 88 yards with a touchdown and was sacked twice in the first half as Miami led Baltimore 10-7 on Sunday. He threw for 139 yards and took four sacks in the second half as the Dolphins surrendered their lead en route to a 28-13 loss.
Second-year right tackle Dallas Thomas gave up three of the team’s six sacks filling in for Pro Bowler Branden Albert. Thomas has quite a challenge ahead in a talented New England front seven, which includes New England sacks leader Rob Ninkovich (seven).
[sc:NFL240banner ]Nevertheless, Miami may be able to lessen the pressure on Tannehill by leaning on their running game like in the first matchup. The Dolphins torched New England for 191 yards on the ground on the strength of then-starting running back Knowshon Moreno’s 134 yards and a score. Moreno is now out for the season with an injury, but the Dolphins haven’t missed him with Lamar Miller running the ball.
Miller rushed for 5.4 yards per carry against the Patritos in Week 1. He has averaged 4.9 yards per carry in the past four weeks.
On the other side of the ball, Miami may get some production from their pass rush to limit New England quarterback Tom Brady. Defensive ends Cameron Wake (9.5 sacks) and Olivier Vernon (5.5 sacks) combined for three sacks against the Patriots in Week 1. Still, they’re in for a tougher matchup this time around as the Pats’ offensive line has allowed only two sacks in the past four weeks.
The total has gone under in seven of Miami’s last eight games.
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Betting on the New England Patriots
Brady had a big game in San Diego, passing for 317 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, while only being sacked once. One of his favorite targets, Rob Gronkowski, became the first tight end in NFL history with four seasons of 10 or more TDs after catching a 14-yard pass from Brady for the go-ahead score. Wide receiver Julian Edelman caught Brady’s other passing touchdown to finish with 141 yards receiving.
Expect the Pats’ passing offense to keep firing on all cylinders against a banged-up Miami secondary. The Dolphins’ starting safety Louis Delmas is out for the season after suffering a knee injury in the fourth quarter against Baltimore. Meanwhile, Miami is also missing cornerbacks Will Davis, Jamar Taylor and Cortland Finnegan. The Dolphins have allowed an average of 259 passing yards in games against Denver and Baltimore in the past three weeks.
The Pats can also turn to running backs LeGarette Blount and Jonas Gray to exploit Miami’s struggle against the run. The Dolphins have allowed an average of 220.3 yards rushing in their last three games. Blount has averaged 4.8 yards per carry since joining the Patriots’ backfield in Week 12 and has scored two touchdowns for New England.
While New England’s offense take care of the scoring, cornerback Darrelle Revis should be a tough matchup for the Dolphins’ receivers with 14 passes defended and two interceptions this season. Revis may be able to hamper Tannehill’s production as he covers either Dolphins receivers Mike Wallace or Jarvis Landry, who see the majority of the Miami receiving corps’ targets (102 and 82 respectively).
The Patriots have won their last five home games (3-2 ATS) against Miami since 2009.
Writer’s Prediction
The Patriots (-8) continue to pile misery on Miami. Take New England to win and cover.
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