Dak Prescott and the top-ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs have successfully surmounted every challenge put in front of them so far to remain undefeated on the season. But the Bulldogs’ Cinderella season could be on the brink of hitting midnight when they travel to the fortress that is the Bryant-Denny Stadium to face the Alabama Crimson Tide.
The Tide survived in Death Valley against LSU last week to keep their SEC West title hopes alive, and they’ll have home field advantage against the top team in the country. With the division very much on the line, this is sure to be another suspenseful SEC matchup.
Auburn is just about out of the running in the SEC West, but their next opponents, Georgia, still have a shot at taking the SEC East. Read more about this potentially explosive offensive showdown in our preview here.
[sc:NCAAFArticles ]Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa
When: Saturday, November 15, 2014, 3:30 PM ET
Line: Mississippi State Bulldogs (+7) at Alabama Crimson Tide (-7) – view all NCAA Football lines
Betting on the Mississippi State Bulldogs
No. 1-ranked Mississippi State handily took care of business with a 45-16 win over UT Martin on Saturday to remain undefeated ahead of their trip to Tuscaloosa. However, the 29-point win was nowhere close to covering the 45-point spread. The Bulldogs have now failed to cover in three straight games.
[sc:NCAA240banner ]Quarterback Dak Prescott scored three more touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) while running back Josh Robinson had a significantly reduced workload to keep him fresh for Alabama. Offensively, the Bulldogs will be relying heavily on those two to break past Alabama’s always formidable run defense, which will be the toughest unit they’ve faced this season.
The most comparable defense they’ve seen to date was LSU back in Week 4. They passed that test with flying colors, with Prescott accounting for 373 total yards (105 on the ground) and three touchdowns, while Robinson had 197 yards on a season-high 12.3 yards per carry.
But if Alabama’s run defense performs well enough to force Mississippi State into throwing the ball more, Prescott must be very careful not to hand the Tide extra possessions. In his three previous games against conference opponents, Prescott threw five interceptions.
Mississippi State’s own ability to force takeaways will also be crucial, because they’ve hardly shown they can stop the pass. The Bulldogs are by far the worst pass defense in the SEC, allowing well over 300 yards per game, but they’ve made up for it by getting 12 interceptions.
Betting on the Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama’s playoff hopes were on life support against LSU at Death Valley, but the Crimson Tide weathered the storm to pull off a gritty 20-13 win in overtime. The total has gone under in four of the Tide’s last five games.
Blake Sims and the Alabama offense were mostly held in check by LSU, as they produced just 315 yards of total offense. However, the Tide shouldn’t expect to have this sort of problem against a Mississippi State defense that is giving up the second-most total yards per game in the conference.
Running back TJ Yeldon injured his ankle against LSU, which could force Alabama to go to a more pass-oriented attack against Mississippi State if he can’t recover in time. That should suit Alabama just fine, especially with a deep threat like Amari Cooper going up against the Bulldog secondary.
Cooper has the most plays of 30-plus yards of any receiver in the SEC with nine, while Mississippi State is tied for the most 30-plus yard pass plays allowed with 15.
Alabama is also very well-suited to contain Mississippi State’s very good running game. Despite giving up 183 rushing yards against LSU, over 100 yards more than they averaged heading into the game, the Tide gave up just 3.3 yards per carry and didn’t allow the Tigers a rushing touchdown. Alabama has given up only two rushing scores all season, the fewest in the country by a comfortable margin.
Writer’s Prediction
Alabama’s run defense stops Prescott and the Bulldogs in their tracks as the Crimson Tide (-7) end Mississippi State’s bid for an undefeated season. Create a betting account now and be a part of yet another huge SEC West showdown.
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