Missouri Tigers vs. Florida Gators Betting Preview
Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — Gainesville, Florida
When: Saturday, October 15, 2016, 4:00 PM ET
Line: Missouri Tigers (+13.5) at Florida Gators (-13.5); total: 50.5 – view all NCAA Football odds and lines
TV Broadcast: ESPN
Writer’s Pick: Florida Gators (-13.5)
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Betting on the Missouri Tigers (+13.5)
Excluding that 42-7 thrashing they received from LSU two weeks back, Missouri QB Drew Lock and the entire offense has been exceeding a lot of expectations this year, particularly their aerial attack.
With 351 passing yards per game, the Tigers are leading the SEC. Yes, THAT SEC. The same conference that has the likes of Alabama, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Auburn, etc. They’ve now thrown for 1,753 passing yards through five games, which is only 233 yards short of what they had in all of last year.
The wideout that’s helping the most in extending that yardage is J’Mon Moore. Much like what his team is doing, the junior is also shattering his production from last year. He has already surpassed his total receiving yards from last year by 100 (450-350) and only needs three more catches to eclipse his receptions from the previous season.
In order to beat Florida, though, Mizzou has to do more than throwing the ball. That’s where the first problem comes in: their run game, which has a satisfactory average of 4.3 yards per carry, will not cut it with the strong Gators defense. The backs and the offensive line will have to figure out a way around that.
The O-Line, by the way, is doing an excellent job protecting Lock, as they have only allowed three sacks, sixth-best in the nation.
Now, for the second problem: the defense. It is now giving up seven more points than last year, and it was highlighted in the LSU blowout loss, where they permitted a whopping 634 total yards. Against Florida and its QB Luke Del Rio, allowing even just a half of that can get them beat pretty good. The rush and pass defense will have to get Del Rio often and quick if they don’t want another embarrassing defeat.
Missouri is 0-4 SU and ATS in its last four games on the road.
Betting on the Florida Gators (-13.5)
Florida will head into the game returning from a surprise bye week, as their scheduled matchup against LSU last Saturday was postponed due to the conditions caused by Hurricane Matthew.
Let’s get this one straight: the Gators’ 4-1 record has “defense” written all over it, and maybe some small scribbles of “offense” on the side. Their stop unit is simply destroying opposing offenses with authority. Along with a nation-best 11.6 points allowed per game, they are just giving up 140 passing yards per game and 2.5 yards per carry, leading the SEC in interceptions with eight, and are able to stop offenses on third down 71 percent of the time (49-of-68).
Offensively, the room for improvement is huge. With QB Luke Del Rio finally returning from injury, let’s hope the O will be better. Prior to being hurt, the QB was averaging 254 yards per contest (6-2 TD-INT), while completing 61.4 percent of his passes. He should be able to get some help from Jordan Scarlett and Antonio Callaway, Florida’s primary back and receiver, respectively.
Florida is 8-2 SU (4-6) in its last 10 home games.
Writer’s Prediction
Florida (-13.5) wins, 31-13.
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