Monaco vs. Borussia Dortmund Preview
Where: Stade Louis II, Monaco
When: Wednesday, April 19, 2017, 2:45 PM ET
Line: Monaco +175 vs. Borussia Dortmund +119, draw +245; total 3.5 – view all Champions League lines
TV Broadcast: Fox Sports 2
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Betting on Monaco (+175)
AS Monaco will have a slender lead to protect back home after an important 3-2 first-leg win in Germany. Kylian Mbappe once again provided the firepower for the French side as he scored two of the team’s three goals. The 18-year-old has now scored four goals in his last three games in the Champions League, all of which he started after being on the subs’ bench in the first three games of the campaign.
History will be on Monaco’s side heading into the second leg. Five other teams have won a Champions League knockout round first leg 3-2 away from home, and all five went on to advance.
Monaco’s terrific home-field advantage will also be squarely in their favor. The French leaders are 14-1-1 at home in Ligue 1, with 54 goals scored and just 12 conceded. They’ve been equally impressive at the Stade Louis II in Europe, where they’ve won three out of four games.
But despite having the lead in the tie, don’t expect Monaco to change how they play. They don’t really know how to kill off games with their defense, so they will continue to look for goals, and go for the win.
Monaco have won 21 of 30 Champions League games all-time, the third-highest winning percentage among clubs with at least 30 home games played in the competition.
Betting on Borussia Dortmund (+119)
Whether or not the traumatic bus explosion that occurred on the day of their originally-scheduled first leg had anything to do with their performance, Borussia Dortmund did not perform as well as they would’ve hoped in the first leg.
Their defense – which was without defender Marc Bartra, who broke his wrist because of that explosion – conceded three goals at home for just the second time all season, the first being an 8-4 demolition of Legia Warsaw in the group stage.
Luckily for Dortmund, they managed to salvage two goals to cut the deficit down to a more manageable amount heading into the second leg.
Another bit of good news for the Germans is the return of star striker Marco Reus after a month-long injury layoff. Reus scored within just three minutes of Dortmund’s 3-1 win against Frankfurt over the weekend, and played all 90 minutes. It remains to be seen whether manager Thomas Tuchel will elect to start Reus against Monaco, but he should play at least some part in the second leg.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang also got on the scoresheet against Frankfurt. Aubameyang is Dortmund’s leading scorer in the Champions League with seven goals in seven games. But even after coming up goalless against Monaco in the first leg, he should continue to get opportunities to score against Monaco’s defense. Monaco have conceded 15 goals in this year’s competition – the most of any quarterfinal team – and have kept just one clean sheet in nine games.
Writer’s Prediction
Monaco (+175) make it back to the semifinals with a 3-1 home win.
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