Napoli vs. Real Madrid Preview
Where: Stadio San Paolo – Naples, Italy
When: Tuesday, March 7, 2017, 2:45 PM ET
Line: Napoli +180 vs. Real Madrid +127, draw +220; total 3.5 – view all Champions League lines
Writer’s Pick: Draw (+220)
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Betting on Napoli (+180)
Napoli have it all to do after they lost 3-1 during the first leg in Madrid. The Italians do have a vital away goal, which means a 2-0 win would see them through in the tie. It seems highly unlikely they can keep Real from scoring a few away goals themselves, though, so the Italians must attack and score more than twice to stand any chance of going through to the quarterfinals.
The Neapolitans have had a spotty home record in the Champions League this season. After beating Benfica 4-2, they lost 3-2 to Besiktas and drew 0-0 with Dynamo Kiev in their other two home group games. They were also held goalless in their last home game in the league, which they lost 2-0 to Atalanta.
However, they should come into the second leg in good spirits after an impressive 2-1 away win against high-flying Roma in Serie A. Dries Mertens was once again the star of the show for Napoli as he scored both goals. Mertens has been instrumental in Napoli’s Champions League run this season. He has scored (4) or assisted (2) in six of the team’s last nine goals in the competition.
Betting on Real Madrid (+127)
Real Madrid haven’t been in the greatest form since their 3-1 first-leg win over Napoli. They lost once and drew once in five league matches, which was enough to see Barcelona leapfrog them for top spot in La Liga. However, they did get back on track with a convincing 4-1 away win over Eibar over the weekend.
Karim Benzema got on the scoresheet twice after netting just once in his previous 10 games. That performance likely earned him a place in the starting XI for the second leg alongside the in-form Cristiano Ronaldo (four goals in his last three games) and Gareth Bale.
Ronaldo missed out on that trip to Eibar due to injury, but should be set to start against Napoli. The Portuguese superstar will be eager to end his five-game goal drought in the competition.
Real only need to avoid defeat to secure qualification, and they have been very adept in doing just that. They’re unbeaten in their last 11 Champions League matches, winning six and drawing five. If they manage to avoid defeat in Naples, it’ll be their longest unbeaten run in their illustrious Champions League/European Cup history. They have also lost just once in their last nine Champions League away games (1-4-4).
But don’t think Real will be happy to just defend and play for a draw. Their game is to attack, attack, attack, as evidenced by their streak of scoring at least two goals in their last seven Champions League games.
Writer’s Prediction
Real Madrid do enough to advance as they engage in a highly entertaining 2-2 draw (+220) in Italy.
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