The Utah Utes had a very disappointing end to their regular season even as star Delon Wright put the team on his back. As a result of their slump, the No. 5 Utes now have a date with No. 12 Stephen F. Austin in the Round of 64. The Lumberjacks sent one No. 5 crashing out of last year’s tourney, and are more than capable of a repeat performance. Are the Utes primed for an upset? Read on for our preview of this intriguing matchup.
On Feb. 19, Utah was 11-2 in Pac-12 play and was looking like a possible top-three seed in the tournament. But ever since, the Utes have gone just 3-4 (2-5 against the spread), which has seen them crash all the way down to a No. 5.
[sc:NCAAB240banner ]Utah’s defense, supposedly its major strength, has been a big reason for the team’s slide. The Utes have limited opponents 57 points per game (11th in the nation) on the season, but that has risen to 69 points in four losses to Oregon (twice), Arizona and lowly Washington.
Surrendering 77 points to Washington, the second-worst team in the conference, was particularly damning. If the Utes don’t make the necessary defensive adjustments, they could once again have their hands full in containing SF Austin’s highly efficient attack.
Not even the excellent play of senior Delon Wright has been able to turn the Utes’ waning fortunes. Wright has been averaging 17.7 points in his last seven games, including 20-point performances in a losing effort against Oregon and Washington.
As good as Wright has been, Utah’s slide despite his strong play shows can’t do it alone. Jakob Poeltl has shown some signs of providing that sort of assistance, as he scored 18 and 16 points in back-to-back games against Washington and Stanford.
The seven-foot freshman has been wildly inconsistent with his offensive game this season, but he could have another breakout performance if he imposes himself against Stephen F. Austin’s very small lineup which features just one player taller than 6-6.
Betting on the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Don’t you dare sleep on Stephen F. Austin. The Lumberjacks made some noise in another 5 vs. 12 matchup last season when they upset No. 5 VCU in overtime.
Well, they’re back as a very underrated No. 12 this season after they grabbed both the regular season and tournament titles in the Southland Conference. They went 17-1 in conference play, and won both of their tournament games by at least a dozen points. Their average scoring margin this season was +13.5, ninth in the nation.
The Lumberjacks have averaged 79.5 points per game (also ninth in the nation), which they’ve achieved through excellent cohesion and ball movement. They lead the nation with 18 assists per game. Their ultra-small lineup might be perceived as a weakness, but it can cause some awkward mismatches. 6-6 “center” Jacob Parker makes almost two threes per game at a 47 percent clip.
That small lineup is also quite helpful on defense. They employ a high-pressure defense that caused the third-most turnovers in the country this season.
The Lumberjacks landed a very ideal matchup against Utah not only because they’ll face a struggling team that could be short on confidence, but also because their small-ball lineup is the type that has given Utah headaches. The Utes lost both of their meetings this season against a similarly small Oregon team.
Utah’s seven-footer Poeltl was a non-factor in both games because he couldn’t defend the smaller “bigs” or score enough to capitalize on his size advantage. The same scenario could go down against Stephen F. Austin. If the Lumberjacks can cause some early turnovers and get to a fast start, the Utes’ already fragile confidence could finally break.
Writer’s Prediction
Stephen F. Austin (+6.5) puts an end to Utah’s disappointing final part of the season as the Lumberjacks cut down another No. 5 seed. Create a betting account now and cash in on March Madness’ many hidden upsets.
