Two years since suffering an incredibly gruesome leg break in the tournament, Kevin Ware is back in the Big Dance. Ware will provide some much-needed experience for a Georgia State team that will be making its first trip to the tourney in well over a decade. But the Panthers will be put to the test when they face off against the No. 3 seed Baylor Bears.
The Bears have been battle-tested by the Big 12’s brutal conference schedule, but can the Panthers pull off a massive upset? Check out our comprehensive breakdown below.
[sc:NCAAB240banner ]Baylor held its own in the very competitive Big 12 this year, going 11-7 during conference play. The Bears beat Iowa State – a possible Final Four pick among some experts – at home, 74-73, in January. Overall, they went just 2-5 against the three teams directly above them in the standings – Kansas, Iowa State and Oklahoma – including a 62-52 loss to the Jayhawks in the conference tournament semifinal.
But they generally took care of the teams they were supposed to beat. Two of the three losses they had outside of the top three were on the road to Kansas State and Texas, and both were by just two points.
Baylor has a set identity, one built upon very good rebounding and shooting. The Bears have a reliable big man in Rico Gathers, who’s a monster on the glass. His 11.6 rebounds per game are tied for third in the nation this season. He’s surrounded by a bunch of knockdown shooters in Taurean Prince, Kenny Cherry, Royce O’Neale and Lester Medford, all of whom are shooting 38 percent or better from three.
Baylor’s particular skill set looks tailor-made to beat Georgia State. The Panthers were 341st out of 351 teams in giving up three-point attempts this season, which means Baylor’s shooters will get ample opportunities to launch.
Meanwhile, Gathers and the Bears, who are top five in the nation in offensive rebounding, should be able to gather up most of their missed threes against a Georgia State team that has allowed a whopping 12 offensive boards per game this season.
Betting on the Georgia State Panthers
After coming agonizingly close to an automatic tournament bid last season, Georgia State finally made its way back to the Big Dance for the first time since 2001 after winning the Sun Belt tournament. Kevin Ware accounted for almost half of the team’s offense with 18 points on 8-of-17 shooting as the Panthers survived a sloppy 38-36 slugfest against Georgia Southern in the final.
Ware will be one of the storylines of the tournament as he prepares to play his first March Madness game since the horrific leg break he suffered against Duke in the Elite Eight in 2013. The Louisville transfer has been more of a supporting player in this Panthers team, but he could yet play a bigger role during the tournament.
Ryan Harrow, a former Kentucky Wildcat and the team’s second-leading scorer (18.5 points per game) has been bothered by a hamstring injury, which could limit his effectiveness against Baylor. If his condition doesn’t improve, Ware (7.7 points pe game) could be called upon to provide more offense alongside top scorer RJ Hunter (19.8 points per game). Hunter exploded with back-to-back 30-point performances prior to the tournament final.
Georgia State faced another Big 12 team this year (Iowa State) in its second game of the season, and was thoroughly demolished, 81-58. But the Panthers may just stand a chance of keeping close to Baylor if they can do what they do best: cause turnovers. The Panthers rank sixth in the nation with 9.1 steals per game, and they’ll be up against a Baylor team that has coughed the ball up 12.5 times per contest this year.
Writer’s Prediction
Gathers and Baylor (-8.5) blow out the Panthers, 75-50, to advance to the Round of 32. Create a betting account now and gather up all your picks before March Madness begins.
