For the first time since his first tournament of the season at Doha, Novak Djokovic is back in a semifinal. However, he reached that semifinal by default as his quarterfinal opponent, Kei Nishikori, had to pull out with a wrist injury.
Prior to that, Djokovic labored to a three-set win over Nicolas Almagro and beat Feliciano Lopez in straight sets. That was the World No. 2’s first straight-sets win in his last seven matches. Djokovic’s serve has at shown signs of improvement in Madrid. He’s putting 70 percent of his first serves in play, and is winning over 65 percent of his second serve points.
So, has Djokovic showed enough through two matches to forget his poor season thus far? Not quite. But his recent record against Rafael Nadal should inspire at least some confidence in the Serb. Djokovic has won seven matches in a row against the Spaniard, and 11 of their last 12. That even includes their last three meetings on clay, where Nadal usually dominates.
Nadal may have had his problems with dealing with Djokovic in past years, but this year’s version of Nadal looks a lot more like the one who dominated the tour alongside Roger Federer for years. The 30-year-old Spaniard has reached the final in five of the last six tournaments he’s entered this season.
He may have lost all three finals on hard-court — two to Federer — but he’s making up for it during the clay-court season. Nadal simply destroyed the competition to win both the Monte Carlo Masters and at Barcelona. After dropping a set against Kyle Edmund in his very first match at Monte Carlo, Nadal went on to win his next nine matches in a row in straight-sets.
Nadal finally dropped a set in the first round in Madrid. He struggled with his serve against Fabio Fognini, as he faced 16 break points and was broken four times. However, normal service quickly resumed in his straight-sets wins over Nick Kyrgios and David Goffin.
With question marks still surrounding Djokovic and his play this season, the in-form Nadal has the perfect opportunity to get one over on the struggling Serb.
Writer’s Prediction
Nadal (-240) deals Djokovic another loss as the King of Clay reaches the Madrid Masters final.
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