It will be one hell of a Grand Slam semifinal when world No. 1 Novak Djokovic meets world No. 3 Roger Federer in a blockbuster showdown. It’s going to be the 45th meeting between two of the world’s best with their previous matches split evenly between them. Can Djokovic keep his quest for a sixth Australian Open alive? Or will Federer take one more step toward his goal of 18 Grand Slam titles?
Novak Djokovic had a very difficult fourth round, beating Gilles Simon 6-3, 6-7 (1), 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 in a gruelling match. He had more unforced errors (100) than winners (62). Surely the match gave the world No. 1 quite a wake-up call. He went on to obliterate Kei Nishikori in straight sets in the quarterfinal.
Djokovic still has plenty to work on despite a straight sets victory over Nishikori. He still had more unforced errors (27) than winners (22). His dominant serve wasn’t there in the match. He had just six aces, put 57 percent of his first serves in and won 65 percent of first serve points. Despite his struggles, Djokovic did excel on the return, winning 49 percent of receiving points including 6 of 11 break points.
The Serb struggled against semifinal opponent, Roger Federer, last year. The two split six matches on hard court between them. Djokovic won 66 percent of his first serve points in the six matches on hard court against Federer. If he wants to win his sixth Australian Open title, then he’ll need to be able to dictate the pace with his serve.
Even getting Djokovic down can’t slow him down. He’s played some of his best tennis later into matches. He has won 75 percent of his first serve points in match-deciding sets of his last four contests in the Australian Open.
Djokovic has won his last three Grand Slam matches against Federer.
Betting on Roger Federer
Roger Federer has dropped just one set at the Australian Open, in the third round against Grigor Dimitrov. He punched a ticket to the semifinals with a 7-6 (4), 6-2, 6-4 straight sets victory over Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals.
Spectacular serving gave Federer the victory. He won 83 percent of his first serve points, along with nine aces against Berdych. He was also proficient on the receiving end, winning 41 percent of return points. He hit 48 winners compared to just 26 unforced errors.
Federer will be very difficult to stop. He’s been on point all tournament long. He had his biggest game in the second round, beating Alexandr Dolgopolov in straight sets, hitting 25 aces and won 88 percent of his first serve points. Even while dropping a set against the aforementioned Dimitrov in the third round, he still won 75 percent of his first serve points.
The 17-time Grand Slam winner will have a huge advantage if he can dictate the pace with his serve. Novak Djokovic is very powerful and athletic, but Federer’s finesse-based style could give him trouble if he commits too much on his athleticism. Djokovic has had trouble keeping his unforced errors low at this tournament. If Federer can take advantage of those lapses, then he may survive one more round to contend for his 18th Grand Slam title.
Federer is 12-2 in his last 14 matches on hard court.
Writer’s Prediction
Djokovic still hasn’t shown his best at the Australian Open. Federer has been nothing but good; he offers a sweet price of +260as the underdog. Federer upsets Djokovic to make the final.
