No. 23 Ole Miss (4-3, 1-2 SEC) had a rough time out on the road as it lost 34-30 to Arkansas. Chad Kelly was pressured into the worst passing game of his Ole Miss career, going by passer rating (104). He went just 18-of-39 for 253 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Kelly did do some damage with his legs, as he rushed for 89 yards and two scores.
Don’t discount Kelly and this Ole Miss offense’s abilities, though. The senior is clearly the superior quarterback in this matchup with LSU, and has the explosive weapons to put points up against any team (see: the 43 points they laid down against Alabama).
Kelly is also no stranger to running LSU’s defense ragged. He didn’t have the best passing game in last year’s meeting – he finished 19-of-34 – but he still threw two touchdowns and rushed for two more as he almost-singlehandedly led the Rebels to a 38-17 win.
Ole Miss has historically been terrific against the spread in Death Valley. The Rebels are 9-1 ATS in their 10 all-time road games. Their one loss came in their last meeting in 2014, but Hugh Freeze is 3-1 ATS in four meetings overall against LSU.
No. 15 LSU (4-2, 2-1 SEC) has gotten its swagger back under interim coach Ed Orgeron. Coach O has led the Tigers to back-to-back home wins over Mizzou and Southern Miss by a combined score of 87-17. After going 0-4 ATS in their first four games, they’re now 2-0 ATS under Coach O.
The offense, particularly the running game, has been revitalized despite the absence of superstar Leonard Fournette. Led by Derrius Grice, the Tigers rushed for 601 yards and 9 rushing scores in those two games. Fournette is finally set to return, though, and he’ll get a pretty favorable matchup in the form of this Ole Miss run defense.
The Rebels couldn’t hold down a previously struggling Arkansas running game, allowing the Razorbacks to rush for 200 yards. On the season Ole Miss is giving up 213 rushing yards per game and has allowed 13 touchdowns, both third-worst marks in the conference.
The dangerous Chad Kelly will test LSU’s pass defense early and often in this game, but the Tigers will be ready. They tamed Mizzou and Southern Miss – two teams in the top 25 in the nation in passing yards – to the tune of 349 combined passing yards and just one garbage-time touchdown.
Writer’s Prediction
LSU (-5.5) continues its fine run with Coach O as it runs all over Ole Miss en route to a 31-24 win.
