It’s been a long, winding road, but the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Oregon Ducks are finally here at the College Football Championship game. Not only will this game give us an opportunity to witness some highly-entertaining football action, it also gives us a chance to dig into a nice full set of prop bets on the big game.
Below, I break down five prop bets I like for Monday night. To help give you a sense of which I like more than others, I’ve used a hypothetical $100 betting budget and will be weighting each bet with the amount of my “cash” I would put on that line.
By the way, if you’re looking for a more complete preview of the game itself, check out our look at Ohio State vs. Oregon here. Otherwise, read on for all things player bets.
[sc:NCAAFArticles ]Five Prop Bet Picks for the Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Oregon Ducks College Football Championship Game
Team to Score First
Line: Buckeyes +140, Ducks -180
It’s easy to understand why the Ducks are favored to score first. They have the 2014 Heisman winner Marcus Mariota as their signal caller. Mariota has passed for 4,121 yards with 40 touchdowns and just three interceptions in 14 games this season. He has also compiled 731 yards and 15 touchdowns with his legs.
[sc:NCAA240banner ]Despite Mariota’s brilliance and the high-octane offense of his team, the Ducks have scored first just seven times in their 14 games this season. Ohio State has a constricting passing defense that has limited opponents to just 191.6 yards per game. The Buckeyes have allowed 15 touchdowns compared to 24 interceptions. If there’s a team that can limit Mariota, it’s Ohio State.
Writer’s prediction: Put $10 at +140 for some profit from the Buckeyes.
Marcus Mariota (Oregon) Total Touchdown Passes
Line: Over 2.5 -170, Under 2.5 +135
The reigning Heisman winner has passed for a total of 40 touchdowns in 14 games this season. That’s an average of about three passing scores per game, which makes Over 2.5 an appealing prop. More recently, though, Mariota has thrown for just two touchdowns in each of his last two games against Arizona in the Pac-12 Championship Game and Florida State in the Rose Bowl.
Arizona and Florida State don’t have the best passing defenses in the league. Florida State has allowed 22 passing touchdowns in the nation (85th), while Arizona has allowed 28 (119th). As mentioned above, Ohio State has the constricting pass defense that should be able to limit Mariota to under 2.5 passing touchdowns in this game.
Writer’s prediction: Lay $10 on under 2.5 Mariota touchdown throws.
Marcus Mariota (Oregon) Will He Throw an Interception
Line: Yes +115, No -145
Mariota doesn’t throw many interceptions. He’s excellent at finding open receivers for long gains and touchdowns. Over his three-year collegiate career, Mariota has thrown just 13 interceptions as compared to 755 complete passes. He even had a streak of 253 completions without an interception which persisted until the Ducks’ 59-41 rout of California on October 24. That streak is the second longest in Pac-12 history behind the 353 attempts set by Mariota himself.
Don’t expect to catch Mariota sleeping against the Buckeyes’ excellent pass defense. As per ESPN Stats & Info, Mariota ranks second among Power 5 quarterbacks with a 76.5 completion percentage agaisnt the blitz this season. He’s also seventh in yards per pass attempts against the blitz with 10.4 and third in percentage of passes resulting in touchdowns against pressure at 17.6 percent.
Writer’s prediction: This is the safest bet among the College Football Championship props. Lay $40 at -145 and enjoy seeing Mariota in action.
Team with First Defensive QB Sack
Line: Buckeyes -115, Ducks -115
The Buckeyes have a formidable pass rush that has led to a total of 43 sacks (eighth-most in the nation) in their 14 games this season. They had three sacks in their Sugar Bowl upset win over the Alabama Crimson Tide. Prior to that game, the Tide’s excellent offensive line had only allowed one sack per game.
The Ohio State pass rush should have a favorable matchup against Oregon’s O-line. The Buckeyes’ pass rush is led by one of the best defensive linemen in the nation in Joey Bosa. He has 13.5 sacks this season (fourth in the nation). The Ducks have allowed two sacks per game in 14 contests.
Writer’s prediction: $20 say the Buckeyes get the first sack (-115).
Cardale Jones (Ohio State) Total Touchdown Passes + Interceptions Thrown
Line: Over 2.5 +135, Under 2.5 -180
Ezekiel Elliott has been a monstrous running back for the Buckeyes over the past two games. He racked up a whopping 450 yards rushing and four scores on just 40 carries against two teams that had been excellent in stopping the run (Alabama and Wisconsin both ranking in the top 25 rushing defenses in the nation).
The spotlight will be on Elliott, therefore allowing quarterback Cardale Jones to slip under the radar. Jones has passed for 500 yards passing with four touchdowns and an interception in wins over Wisconsin and Alabama. Jones should be able to torch Oregon’s leaky passing defense which has allowed 265.9 yards passing per game. Play-action passes should also draw attention away from the quarterback for some big gains through the air.
Writer’s prediction: Jones passes for at least three touchdowns and an interception to push this total to four. Put $20 on over 2.5 for a profit.
A $100 bankroll spent this way would win $99.47 if everything goes to plan. Lay those bets here, and if you don’t already have one create a betting account now and get your picks in before kickoff.
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