Ninety minutes weren’t enough for both Poland and Portugal as they needed extra-time (and penalties in Poland’s case) to progress to the quarterfinals of Euro 2016. With the two teams’ stars – Poland’s Robert Lewandowski and Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo – continuing to struggle in front of goal, will their quarterfinal matchup be another war of attrition? Get a complete breakdown of this opening Euro 2016 quarterfinal.
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Poland vs. Portugal Preview
Where: Stade Velodrome – Marseille, France
When: Thursday, June 30, 3:00 PM ET
Line: Poland +230 vs. Portugal +113, tie +195; total: 2.0 – view all Euro 2016 lines
TV Broadcast: ESPN2
Betting on Poland (+230)
It was a tale of two halves for Poland against Switzerland. The Poles were clearly the superior side in the first half. But for some reason, they took their foot off the gas in the second and allowed the Swiss to get back into the game. Luckily, they eventually managed to win the round of 16 matchup on penalties. They are priced at +1,000 to reach the semifinals via another penalty shootout.
Ronaldo has been kept fairly quiet for the most part in France, and based on the way Poland’s Michal Pazdan, Kamil Glik, and Grzegorz Krychowiak have been playing, they stand a good shot of once again limiting the Portuguese superstar’s impact.
The big worry for the Poles is up front. Their superstar striker, Robert Lewandowski, has been very disappointing. After 30 goals for Bayern Munich last season, Lewa has yet to get off the mark in the tournament. Meanwhile, his strike partner, Arkadiusz Milik, has been very wasteful since his opening goal against Northern Ireland.
With those two misfiring, Poland has scored just three goals in four games, two of them coming from midfielder Jakub Blaszczykowski.
Betting on Portugal (+113)
Portugal had the ignominy of being part of the single worst game of Euro 2016 so far as it labored to a 1-0 extra time win over Croatia in the round of 16. Incredibly, Portugal has reached the quarterfinals despite failing to win any of its four games within 90 minutes.
The Portuguese played very defensively against Croatia, although to their credit, they executed their strategy very well. That overly cautious gameplan was quite a departure from earlier games. They launched an astounding 69 shots during the group stage.
With a place in the semifinals at stake, Santos will likely stick with the safety-first approach against Poland. He is eager to strike a balance between defense and offense, though. He’s even implored superstar Cristiano Ronaldo, who famously has no conscience in front of goal, to get more shots in against Poland.
Portugal has struggled in front of goal in the tournament, and will find things tough against a very resolute Polish defense. But between the Portugal’s Ronaldo-led attack and Poland’s, the Portuguese still have the slight edge in terms of coming up with a decisive moment, whether it comes in regulation or in extra time, where the Portuguese are +750 to win.
Writer’s Prediction
With how both teams have played thus far, this has the makings of another low-scoring affair, possibly one that goes past 90 minutes. A draw would be a good bet, but taking the total to go under 2.0 goals would be the better one.
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