Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays ALDS Game 3 Preview
Where: Rogers Centre, Toronto
When: Sunday, October 9, 2016, 7:30 PM ET
Line: Texas Rangers (+165) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-185); total: 9.5 – view all MLB lines
TV Broadcast: TBS
Writer’s Pick: Toronto Blue Jays (-185)
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Betting on the Texas Rangers (+165)
Texas’ 95-win season is on the brink of going for naught as the Rangers’ backs are now against the wall, trailing Toronto in the ALDS, two games to none. Still, all hope is not lost for the Rangers, who will be sending Colby Lewis (6-5, 3.71 ERA) to the mound on Sunday night. He has been solid in the playoffs in the past, posting a 4-1 record with a 2.38 ERA in nine outings (eight starts).
One major concern about Lewis, though, is his propensity to give up home runs. He surrendered 19 homers in 116.1 innings this campaign, with six of those coming in four starts after being activated from the disabled list on September 11. The 37-year-old struggled mightily during that span, going 0-4 with a 6.38 ERA. That being said, Lewis can take comfort in the fact that he tossed two quality starts against Toronto this season, going seven innings in each. He also experienced some success against the Blue Jays in last year’s ALDS, surrendering just one run in three innings while coming out of the pen.
Certainly, there’s pressure on Lewis’ shoulders and he will have to share it with a Texas lineup that has seen its batting stats go down in this series. The Rangers, who ranked seventh in the majors in runs scored this season (765), have managed just four runs in this series thus far. The Rangers’ offense could get a break in Game 3, though, against Blue Jays starter Aaron Sanchez. Carlos Beltran is a career .500 hitter against Sanchez with one homer, four RBIs and a walk. Adrian Beltre, meanwhile, is 2-of-6 in his career against Sanchez with a homer and a pair of RBIs.
Texas is 6-4 in its last 10 games on the road. The Rangers are pegged at +2,500 to win the World Series this year.
Betting on the Toronto Blue Jays (-185)
The Toronto Blue Jays moved to within a victory of reaching the American League Championship Series with a nerve-wracking 5-3 conquest of the Texas Rangers in Game 2 of the ALDS. J.A. Happ was terrific for the Blue Jays, allowing just one run on nine hits in five innings of action. The Blue Jays have now won five consecutive ALDS games against the Rangers.They will look to end this division series once and for all when they host the Rangers in Game 3 on Sunday night. Starting for Toronto in this pivotal contest is Aaron Sanchez (15-2, 3.00 ERA).
The 24-year-old All-Star led the American League in ERA during the regular season. He helped Toronto clinch home field advantage for the AL Wild Card game by taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Red Sox on the final day of the regular season. Sanchez may have already exceeded his projected innings threshold this season but he is definitely showing no signs of slowing down. He has surrendered a total of three runs over his last three starts. Sanchez recorded 21 strikeouts in 19 innings during that span.
Sanchez will fancy his chances of extending that excellent form in Game 3 as he has fared extremely well in the postseason of late. Over nine relief appearances (7.1 innings) in last year’s playoffs, Sanchez didn’t allow an earned run. He will need to be wary, though, of a Texas lineup that lit him up for six runs in a 6-5 loss on May 15. He surrendered seven hits and four walks in that ballgame.
That being said, Sanchez can lean on a Toronto offense that has been a step ahead of Texas in this series thus far. The Jays’ power stroke has returned this October, blasting eight homers in three postseason games. Edwin Encarnacion, in particular, is having a spectacular ALDS, scoring three runs in the opening two games. One guy who’s also expected to contribute in Game 3 is Jose Bautista. He’s 5-of-17 in his career against Texas starter Colby Lewis with two homers and three RBIs. Bautista is 2-of-7 in this series thus far with a homer and four RBIs.
Toronto is 5-5 in its last 10 games at home. The Blue Jays are pegged at +300 to win the World Series this year.
Writer’s Prediction
Toronto (-185) completes the series sweep with a 6-3 win.
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