The World Cup is quickly approaching, meaning that it’s time to breakdown the top contenders and sleepers to win the 2014 Golden Boot. This year it’s all about Lionel Messi and Neymar. Both players play on teams we picked as the favorites in our team previews for Argentina and Brazil, respectively, but is that the only factor to consider?
The stars of favored teams don’t always win the Golden Boot. After all, the Germans have produced the Golden Boot winner in the last two World Cups and neither was the favorite going into the tournament. Create a betting account now because playing against both Neymar and Messi could yield Golden Boot betting riches.
[sc:Soccer ]2014 World Cup Golden Boot Betting Preview
Golden Boot Favorites are Vulnerable
Lionel Messi is a ridiculous +750 to win the Golden Boot at the 2014 World Cup. There’s absolutely no value there. Sure, Messi could prove the naysayers wrong and score a ton of goals at the World Cup, but he has gone through an injury-plagued season at Barcelona and Argentina head coach Alejandro Sabella knows that if they are to win the World Cup, Messi is going to have to be more distributor than goal scorer.
Neymar is Brazil’s top striker and garners respect to win the Golden Boot because Brazil plays a free-flowing style that could find Neymar in advantageous situations throughout the tournament. But, again, the soccer betting odds on Neymar at +1000, just aren’t high enough to warrant real consideration for the award.
Christiano Ronaldo is still one of the top goal scorers on the planet and, as we discussed in this week’s like of Ronaldo’s top 10 hottest girlfriends, he continues to produce off the field as well. For the Golden Boot, he’s priced at +1200 and does offer more value than either Neymar or Messi, but how far will Portugal advance in the 2014 World Cup? Germany, the USA, who should be tougher than they’ve ever been in a World Cup, and African powerhouse Ghana are all in Group G. Ronaldo’s betting odds should be closer to +1600 to +2000 to win the Golden Boot.
What’s wrong with Luis Suarez, Uruguay’s top striker, at +1200? Nothing. The man has been a monster at Liverpool with 31 goals out of 33 games and Uruguay got a sweet draw. They could upset the Azzurri, Italy, to win Group D. Suarez is the only contender going off at odds of less than +1600 that deserves soccer betting handicappers’ attention to win the Golden Boot.
High-Value Sleepers
Instead of taking the short-odds on Messi, why not back someone like Gonzalo Higuain at +2000? Argentina is a favorite to win the World Cup and Higuain has scored 17 goals in only 32 matches for Napoli. With Messi getting all of the attention, expect him to set up fellow Argentinian superstar Higuian.
Thomas Muller won the Golden Boot in South Africa, and Muller’s odds, at +2500 to win the Golden Boot, make him an overlay. Muller has scored 23 goals for Bayern Munich in 47 games and the disciplined Germans play a clockwork style that relies on getting the ball to their top strikers like Muller.
Another high-value sleeper is also a German, Miroslav Klose who won the Golden Boot at Germany in 2006. Klose’s Golden Boot betting odds are at +3500. What we have to remember is that the Germans will stick with what works. If setting up Klose works, then make no mistake, they’ll set up Klose to the very end until teams react and he’ll be the guy that gets all of the goals. There are no egos, at least when it comes to International play, on the German squad. Both Klose and Muller have terrific shots at Golden Boot repeats.
Writer’s Prediction
The best way to wager on the 2014 World Cup Golden Boot winner is to break up your bets and spread for value. With my $100, I broke it up this way: $35 on Gonzalo Higuain at +2000, $20 each on Klose at +3500 and Muller at +2500 and $25 on Suarez at +1200.
The worst that I can make is a $300 profit if Suarez takes home the Golden Boot. Create a betting account and play what I’ve done or use my betting structure on who you like in order to cash in on the 2014 Golden Boot winner.
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